Polish Zloty: NBP language turns cautious after FX pressure – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that NBP Governor Adam Glapinski used G20 remarks to shift towards a more neutral, flexible stance, avoiding earlier dovish hints of imminent rate cuts. With August CPI surprising hawkishly and the Zloty underperforming CE3 peers, the bank is seen on the back foot. Ghose expects unchanged rates on 9 September but doubts this will curb PLN underperformance.

Glapinski moves away from dovish guidance

"Poland’s National Bank (NBP) governor Adam Glapinski used remarks at the G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank heads in North Carolina to portray a subtle shift towards a more neutral signal: Poland’s MPC is not pre-committed to any particular rate path, and monetary policy must remain flexible, data-driven and based on forecasts and the balance of risks."

"But, against the latest backdrop, the language matters because Glapinski did not take the opportunity to repeat his earlier dovish signal about rate cuts being imminent."

"NBP is clearly seeing this depreciation and is being pushed on to the back foot. Even without saying anything explicitly hawkish, Glapinski’s remarks mark a shift away from dovish guidance and towards a more cautious approach."

"The 9 September MPC sitting should bring unchanged rates, but the key question will be about whether or not NBP is prepared to transition to a more hawkish stance, formally."

"For the zloty, however, this may prove too little too late: NBP is turning cautious only after FX pressure has moved against it – a minor change of language may not be enough to curtail PLN underperformance."