HYPE KursHYPE

Source: OAK Research annual report. 1) The most anticipated events in 2026. - ICO and airdrop of Playmarket, airdrop of BASE, TGE on OpenSea, launch of the MegaETH mainnet #MEGA, AAVE V4 #AAVE and a mobile app (new version of the DeFi lending flagship), Season 3 of Hyperliquid #HYPE (continuation of the rewards program), switching fees in favor of token holders #UNI (fee switch in Uniswap), appointment of a new head of the Federal Reserve, inclusion of crypto ETFs in 401(k) retirement accounts, payments to Mt. Gox creditors (return of ~$9b in BTC). 2) Bitcoin is now a macro asset - 2025 was a transitionary year: BTC ended the year roughly where it started. - The 4-year cycle model no longer works. - BTC's price depends on macroeconomics and ETFs, not retail. - BTC dominance > 60% has sucked liquidity out of altcoins. 3) ETFs and DAT companies – new demand (and threat) - 200+ companies own >1,000,000 BTC (5% of the supply). - ETFs and DATs are the main channels for institutions. - Risk: a compressed premium could collapse the sector. 4) Ethereum: the technology is there, the price isn't - Ethereum's technological progress isn't driving price growth. - The transition to L2 reduced fees and ETH burn, killing the "ultrasound money" narrative. - The Ethereum Foundation reorganized. - The task for 2026 is to explain why to hold ETH. 5) Hyperliquid – winner of the year and symbol of "revenue meta" - The main hero of 2025 in DeFi. $1b+ in annual revenue, a team of 11 people. 99% of revenue is used to buy back #HYPE. - The project has caught up with major CEXs on derivatives. - A model of "AWS for liquidity" is forming. 6) The US legalizes crypto through stablecoins - The passage of the GENIUS Act gave stablecoins clear rules of the game. - Bitcoin is de facto recognized as a strategic reserve asset of the US. - Crypto is no longer a fringe topic and has become part of the financial system. - The downside: the commercialization of politics has intensified (memocoins from politicians, conflicts of interest). 7) Stablecoins – a tool for dollar expansion - #USDT and #USDC control the lion's share of the market. Stablecoin issuers have become one of the largest holders of US government bonds. - Stablecoins are a payment rail/infrastructure for tokenized assets (RWA) and DeFi. 8) RWA: tokenized government bonds – the main case for institutions - Tokenized US Treasury bonds are the most mature and fastest-growing sector of RWA. The market has grown exponentially over the past two years. - Tokenization enables compatibility with DeFi and instant settlements. - The link with TradFi is strengthening – systemic shocks will be transmitted faster. 9) Prediction markets have gone mainstream - Polymarket and Kalshi are a duopoly. Volumes have reached tens of billions. - The launch of tokens in 2026 is the main test of sustainability. 10) L2: harsh selection - Capital is concentrating with leaders (Base, Arbitrum). - Most L2s are losing TVL, activity, and token prices. - The problem is that tokens don't capture value. - The future lies in convenience and integration, not new networks. 11) Airdrops: the classic model is dead - Most tokens after an airdrop have lost 70-90% of their value. - Retroactive giveaways attract hunters, not real users, and destroy ecosystems. - Projects are moving to profit sharing, ICO mechanics, or abandoning tokens altogether. 12) Narratives for 2026: Privacy and Crypto + AI - Interest in private transactions and privacy infrastructure is returning. - The focus has shifted from tokenization models to markets for AI computation, verification, and coordination. Crypto is useful to AI as a layer for settlements, trust, and automated payments. Bittensor (#TAO) is the most mature ecosystem at the intersection of crypto and AI.

$HYPE back above 20D EMA. Break $35.5 → rally toward $44. Lose $27.2 SMA → drop to $20.8. #HYPE #HyperLiquid #Analysis

This Friday, we examine Ethereum, Ripple, Cardano, Binance Coin, and Hyperliquid in greater detail. Ethereum ($ETH ) Ethereum closed the week up 2%, but the trend remains bearish, with $1,800 acting as a key support level for this downtrend. If buyers hope for a reversal in the future, then ETH needs to bounce and hold above that level. Any weakness there would basically erase all the progress made since early 2025. Looking ahead, this cryptocurrency has strong resistance around $2,400, and that price point will be decisive if tested later. A rejection there could lead to lower lows, while a breakout can sustain a rally towards $3,000. Ripple (XRP) XRP bounced after a sharp drop and closed this week with a 6% gain. However, this bounce will likely be short-lived, as the downtrend remains intact and new lows are likely. The most important support levels are found at $1.4, which is currently being contested, and $1, where XRP may eventually fall if the overall market remains bearish in the coming months. Looking ahead, this correction has accelerated in 2026, with the price accelerating as it declines. This is quite bearish, but it may also help identify a bottom more quickly. Hopefully, buyers will stop the downtrend around $1. Cardano (ADA) ADA has been struggling in the past 30 days and has booked a 38% loss. Nevertheless, it closed this week in the green with a modest 4% gain. The price also bounced on the 24-cent support. Ideally, Cardano will begin forming a bottom around these price levels, as it has in the past. The alternative would be new lows not seen since 2020. Reclaiming a price above 30 cents is critical if bulls want to regain control. Looking ahead, the outlook is grim for this cryptocurrency, especially if Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to underperform. That will likely pull it even lower. A price under 20 cents would make this one of the worst bear markets for ADA. BNB Coin Unsurprisingly, BNB finally touched the support at $580. This level has long been a key target for sellers, and it has now been reached. The question is whether it will hold. Ideally, the market should bounce after months of bearish price action. This also applies to BNB, which has been in a downtrend since October 2025. If $580 fails to hold, conditions become more challenging, as the next key support levels are at $500 and $380. Looking ahead, this cryptocurrency has lost nearly 60% of its valuation since its all-time high of approximately $1,375. If the past is to serve as a guide, this bear market may take BNB to -70% before a bottom is found. Hype (HYPE) HYPE closed the week in red with a 11% loss. That’s because buyers were unable to break above $36 and turn it into a key support level. For this reason, the current price action could be interpreted as a lower high. That is bearish. Nevertheless, at the time of this post, buyers appear to be defending the support at $30 quite well. As long as this holds, buyers have another shot at making new highs. Looking ahead, the rally that started at $20 appears to have reached its peak this week when buyers were unable to book new highs. For this reason, a bearish reversal is likely if $30 is lost again.

$HYPE sell and buy fast $TRADOOR big pump loding $XRP