Bitcoin Price May Ditch 4-Year Halving Cycle for 6-to-8-Year Debt Cycle, Says On-Chain Analyst
Bitcoin’s price (BTC-USD) patterns may be leaving the four-year halving schedule. On-chain analyst Willy Woo says the market could adopt the six-to-eight-year debt cycle common in traditional finance. His statement comes with Bitcoin trading near $80,841 after recovering from a 50% drop from its October 2025 peak of $126,198.
In past years, every halving cut new token creation in half. This fostered a supply drop that pushed BTC prices up. Willy Woo thinks this supply cut is now too small to drive large BTC price moves. New Bitcoin creation fell to 0.8% in 2024 and is expected to drop to 0.4%. Gold miners added 1.7% to stocks in 2025, which means Bitcoin adds new supply slower than physical gold. Research from Fidelity Digital Assets (FIS) also noted lower price swings, linking changed trading habits to spot ETFs.
Ray Dalio Made the Debt Model Popular
The halving model tracks coin supply, but large markets follow cash flows and credit. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio made this debt model popular. It begins when central banks cut rates to make loans cheap. Easy borrowing boosts spending and lifts asset prices until rising inflation forces banks to hike rates back up. Tight credit then slows the economy down, leading to new rate cuts.
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Data from the National Bureau of Economic Research shows the average U.S. post-war business cycle lasts 75 months, or just over six years. Willy Woo’s 6-to-8-year cycle idea fits the longer end of that history. Recent price moves match both theories. The Federal Reserve cut rates to zero in March 2020 before Bitcoin hit a high in late 2021, and rate hikes in March 2022 matched a crypto market drop.
Bitcoin Hit Its Record High After the April 2024 Halving
Believers in the four-year script argue that the historical pattern remains on track. Bitcoin hit its record high about 18 months after the April 2024 halving before entering a deep price drop, matching the timing of the 2017 and 2021 market tops. So far, Bitcoin has completed only four full cycles. This has left a small sample size that makes long-term shifts harder to prove.
If the historical halving model holds, Bitcoin would reach a market bottom around late 2026 before recovering ahead of the 2028 halving. If Bitcoin shifts to a longer 6-to-8 year cycle, prices might not bottom out until 2027 or later. Future price runs would then follow Fed rate cuts instead of halving dates.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is sitting at $80,841.
