Trump win probability falls to 62% on Polymarket, or by traders' hedging operations

On November 1, Polymarket data showed that the probability of a Trump victory has now fallen to 62% (from a previous high of 67%), with some observers suggesting that the rise in the odds reflects hedging positions among traders, who are hedging their risk by betting on a Harris victory, following earlier reports of “Trump's voting voting irregularities. Some researchers are also pointing out that there is a good arbitrage opportunity if traders have access to both Robinhood Securities and Polymarket. Users could bet on Trump to win on Robinhood and Harris on Polymarket, and profit regardless of who wins (Harris has a higher win rate on Robinhood Securities than on Polymarket).