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Kriptovalyuta bozorlarida fyuchers pozitsiyalari yana diqqat markazida.
Texnik tahlilchi Tom McClellanning ta’kidlashicha, Bitcoin fyucherslarida “no-kommersiya” sifatida tasniflangan investorlar (odatda spekulyativ va professional fondlarni o‘z ichiga oladi) so‘nggi COT (Commitment of Traders) hisobotiga ko‘ra, net long pozitsiyalariga o‘tishda ajoyib tezlikni namoyish qilmoqda.
McClellan ta’kidlaganidek, bu investorlar guruhi tarixan “aqlli pul” deb hisoblangan, va o‘tmishda xuddi shunday ko‘lamda net long pozitsiyalarining oshishi Bitcoin narxida kuchli harakatlar bilan kuzatilgan. Biroq, tahlilchi hozirgi ma’lumotlarni mustaqil ravishda sotib olish signali deb baholamaslik kerakligini urg‘uladi. McClellanning so‘zlariga ko‘ra, bu “holat”, lekin “signal” emas. Bu bozor pastki qismining shakllanish jarayonida ko‘riladigan strukturaviy o‘zgarishni bildiradi; ammo, bu vaqt nuqtai nazaridan aniq burilish nuqtasini anglatmaydi.
McClellanning bahosiga javoban, BuildMarkets bosh investitsiya direktori Matt Dines tajribali tahlilchilarning izohlariga alohida e’tibor qaratish kerakligini aytdi. Dines grafikda muhim bir tafsilotga ishora qilib, avvalgi yirik “ayiq bozor” siklida non-commercial investorlar so‘nggi pastki nuqtadan oldin net long pozitsiyalarini egallaganini eslatib o‘tdi. U bu holat uzoq muddatli Bitcoin investorlari uchun “zarur, lekin yetarli emas” shart bajarilganini anglatishini ta’kidladi.
Dinesning fikriga ko‘ra, eng tajribali long-pozitsiyadagi investorlar hozir bozorning yuqori nuqtasida. Bitcoin narxi hozirgi darajalardan yanada pasayishi mumkin; biroq, siklik pastki nuqtani tasdiqlovchi kuchli yangilik, makroiqtisodiy yoki tartibga soluvchi bo‘ladimi, istalgan vaqtda yuzaga chiqishi mumkin. Agar bunday katalizator paydo bo‘lsa, bozorda tez va agressiv pozitsiyalanish kuzatilishi mumkinligi baholanmoqda.
