Barclays: Risks lean towards Fed delaying rate cuts this year

the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its policy interest rate unchanged this week, but Barclays economists warned that the impact of tariffs could be more severe than what the FOMC shows in its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). They stated in a research report: "We believe that the risks this year tend towards delaying rate cuts." Barclays expects the SEP to show an increase in inflation and unemployment rate expectations, a decrease in GDP growth rate, but Barclays economists expect the slowdown in GDP and the increase in inflation to be greater than the SEP. They added: "Although we expect the SEP to show that the benchmark interest rate will be cut once this year, we still believe that the committee will ultimately cut rates twice in June and September this year, each time by 25 basis points."