Bitget App
Trade smarter
Buy cryptoMarketsTradeFuturesEarnSquareMore
Macroeconomic Push and Pull Limits Bitcoin’s Uptrend Even as Risk Appetite Grows

Macroeconomic Push and Pull Limits Bitcoin’s Uptrend Even as Risk Appetite Grows

Bitget-RWA2025/09/27 01:30
By:Coin World

- Bitcoin remains capped below $110,000 despite gold/equity gains, constrained by macroeconomic factors like global liquidity, ISM Manufacturing Index, and U.S.-China tensions. - Raoul Pal argues extended liquidity cycles and delayed ISM peaks (vs. 2020-2021) prolong Bitcoin's bull run into 2026, with TGA liquidity drains and debt maturity shifts key drivers. - U.S.-China trade tensions triggered 3-8% altcoin corrections, yet institutional holders increased BTC holdings, contrasting subdued retail particip

Macroeconomic Push and Pull Limits Bitcoin’s Uptrend Even as Risk Appetite Grows image 0

Despite recent advances in gold and stock markets, Bitcoin’s value has struggled to break above $110,000, reigniting discussions about what’s holding back its growth. Experts highlight several macroeconomic factors at play, such as shifts in global liquidity, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index, and ongoing U.S.-China geopolitical tensions. Raoul Pal, Real Vision’s co-founder and a prominent macro analyst, believes this current Bitcoin bull run differs fundamentally from previous cycles, with liquidity trends potentially pushing the market’s peak out to 2026

compared to earlier cycles, as noted by Pal and Julien Bittel in their analysis “Liquidity Wave Extends Crypto Bull Run Into 2026” Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel, “Liquidity Wave Extends Crypto Bull Run Into 2026,” *NewsBTC* [ 1 ].

Pal’s perspective centers on the relationship between worldwide liquidity and the ISM index, which tracks U.S. manufacturing health. He observes that Bitcoin’s price has historically moved in sync with the ISM, especially during periods of economic growth. However, with the ISM still below 50—a sign of contraction—Bitcoin’s potential for gains remains limited. Pal attributes this to a lengthened business cycle, where debt maturities have shifted from four to five years, postponing the liquidity and risk-taking peak Raoul Pal, “Bitcoin Market Cycle Extended to 5 Years,” *The Crypto Basic* [ 2 ]. This stands in contrast to the 2020–2021 period, when both liquidity and the ISM peaked together, resulting in a shorter bull run Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel, “Liquidity Wave Extends Crypto Bull Run Into 2026,” *NewsBTC* [ 1 ].

Liquidity trends add further complexity. Since mid-July, the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) has rebuilt rapidly, pulling about $500 billion out of the system and reducing liquidity Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel, “Liquidity Wave Extends Crypto Bull Run Into 2026,” *NewsBTC* [ 1 ]. This external drain has hit risk assets like Bitcoin particularly hard, as they depend on favorable macro conditions. At the same time, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has injected $33 billion into global markets, partially counteracting the U.S. tightening. These differing monetary approaches have created a mixed backdrop for crypto, with institutional players weighing U.S. rate hikes against China’s more cautious easing.

The trade relationship between the U.S. and China is also a significant factor. Recent developments, such as the U.S. reimposing tariffs and stalled talks, have led to a 3–8% drop in altcoins and a 3.9% decline in Bitcoin from its record high. Still, institutional investors remain optimistic. Major Bitcoin holders (wallets with 1,000–10,000 BTC) have increased their positions, showing confidence even amid economic uncertainty. In contrast, retail involvement is low, with less than 20% of Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs) held by short-term traders—far below the 50% seen at previous market peaks.

Bitcoin’s connection to the stock market has also grown stronger. According to the CME Group, since 2020, Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 has moved from neutral to a positive 0.5 Justin Sun and PBoC Analysis, “Liquidity Injections and Crypto Markets,” *CoinEdition* [ 6 ]. This shift highlights increased institutional adoption and integration into portfolios, with Bitcoin now often seen as an extension of equity risk rather than a separate hedge. If global liquidity and the ISM index continue to rise, analysts like Pal suggest Bitcoin could surpass $300,000, provided these favorable trends persist CME Group, “Bitcoin’s Evolving Relationship with Equities,” *OpenMarkets* [ 4 ]. However, this outlook depends on the ISM climbing to between 56 and 65, a milestone that may still be months away CME Group, “Bitcoin’s Evolving Relationship with Equities,” *OpenMarkets* [ 4 ].

The future remains unpredictable. While liquidity boosts and a weaker dollar are supportive for crypto, risks from geopolitics and TGA-driven liquidity drains could keep volatility elevated. Pal stresses the need for patience, advising investors to avoid leverage and to align their investment timelines with broader economic cycles CME Group, “Bitcoin’s Evolving Relationship with Equities,” *OpenMarkets* [ 4 ]. With the U.S. Federal Reserve facing the challenge of refinancing $9 trillion in debt over the next year, the interplay between monetary policy and crypto liquidity is likely to shape Bitcoin’s direction in the months ahead Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel, “Liquidity Wave Extends Crypto Bull Run Into 2026,” *NewsBTC* [ 1 ].

0

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

PoolX: Earn new token airdrops
Lock your assets and earn 10%+ APR
Lock now!

You may also like

Cardano News Today: Cardano Bets $70 Million—Will It Surpass Ethereum by 2026?

- Cardano proposes a ₳70M 2026 budget to scale its decentralized ecosystem and enhance cross-chain interoperability. - Key upgrades include the Midnight privacy sidechain, Bitcoin-linked DeFi tools, and partnerships with Ctrl Wallet for 2,300+ blockchain interoperability. - Institutional adoption grows as Grayscale allocates 20% of a fund to ADA , while price analysis suggests potential $1.10+ rallies by mid-2026. - Long-term forecasts project ADA surpassing $3.25 by 2026 and $10.25 by 2030, contingent on

Bitget-RWA2025/11/30 16:12
Cardano News Today: Cardano Bets $70 Million—Will It Surpass Ethereum by 2026?

Cardano Latest Updates: ADA's Upward Trend Encounters Key Resistance Challenge

- Cardano (ADA) rebounds 7% this week, trading near $0.43 with bullish on-chain and derivatives signals. - Technical indicators show wedge pattern breakout, RSI recovery, and MACD crossover boosting short-term optimism. - Key resistance at $0.49 could trigger $0.56 target, but breakdown below $0.39 risks renewed downward pressure. - Market focuses on ADA's momentum as undervalued altcoin amid broader crypto recovery signals.

Bitget-RWA2025/11/30 16:12

Swiss voters opt for prudence, turn down gender-based service and wealth tax due to concerns about economic impact

- Swiss voters rejected two major policy initiatives, opposing compulsory female civil service (84.2%) and a 50% tax on large inheritances (78%). - Critics highlighted economic risks, gender equity concerns, and fears of wealth flight, prioritizing stability over redistribution or expanded civic duties. - The government warned of labor shortages and exodus of high-net-worth individuals, reinforcing cautious governance over radical reforms. - Rejection reflects Swiss tradition of direct democracy and fragme

Bitget-RWA2025/11/30 16:12
Swiss voters opt for prudence, turn down gender-based service and wealth tax due to concerns about economic impact

AI Models Trace 15,000 Years of Language Change, Yet Practical Effects Are Still Uncertain

- AI simulated 15,000-year English evolution, generating hypothetical linguistic shifts but lacking immediate financial impact. - The experiment contrasts with applied AI tools like C3.ai's earnings automation, highlighting theoretical vs. practical AI applications. - Experts note the project's academic value in modeling language drift, though its speculative nature limits direct market relevance. - Probabilistic models underpin the simulation, emphasizing AI's role in exploring abstract evolutionary traje

Bitget-RWA2025/11/30 16:12
AI Models Trace 15,000 Years of Language Change, Yet Practical Effects Are Still Uncertain