BTC and ETH Linger Around "Max Pain": Expiry-Related Volatility May Sway the Markets
- Over $22B in BTC/ETH options expire on Sept 26, 2025, driving volatility via Deribit’s $17.07B BTC and $5.12B ETH contracts. - BTC’s 1.23 put-to-call ratio signals bearish sentiment, with max pain at $110,000, while ETH’s 0.99 ratio suggests neutral-to-bullish bias near $3,800. - BTC fell 7.5% to $109,145, risking further declines below $108,000 if $114,500 fails, while ETH dropped 17% to $3,933, nearing its max pain level. - Macroeconomic uncertainty and $100B+ outflows amplify risks, with Deribit data
Bitcoin and
Bitcoin’s value has dropped 7.5% from its September 18 high of $117,968 to $109,145 at the time of writing. Experts caution that if BTC fails to recover $114,500, it could fall further toward $108,000, intensifying bearish momentum. Meanwhile, Ethereum has slipped below $4,000, trading at $3,933, marking a 17% decrease from its monthly peak. With ETH nearing its $3,800 max pain level, the risk of further declines increases. Open interest in BTC futures remains close to all-time highs, while ETH futures open interest has climbed to 2.2 million ETH, indicating strong market positioning.
This options expiry coincides with broader economic uncertainty, including upcoming U.S. GDP reports and Treasury auctions, adding to market nerves. Deribit data shows $1.4 billion in BTC put options at current prices, with $6.6 billion in call options set to expire above $120,000. If BTC ends up between $107,000 and $110,000, bearish positions will have a $1 billion net advantage. On the other hand, a close between $112,100 and $115,000 would give bulls a $600 million edge. For ETH, finishing near $3,800 could spark a bounce, but analysts warn that dropping below $3,700 may lead to further losses down to $3,500.
Traders are keeping a close eye on liquidity and funding rates. Bitcoin’s 30-day options delta skew is at 13%, with puts commanding a premium over calls, suggesting caution despite some bullish signals. Negative funding rates for Ethereum indicate strong short positions, and the annualized three-month basis for ETH has fallen to 7% from 9.8%, showing a weakening bullish trend. Deribit’s put options for both BTC and ETH continue to trade at higher premiums than calls, reinforcing a bearish technical outlook.
This expiry follows a week of significant outflows from crypto markets, totaling over $100 billion, with $300 million withdrawn from Ether ETFs. Institutional players and traders are hedging as the market prepares for more volatility. Analysts such as Ted Pillows and DustyBC observe that BTC’s pullback fits a correction phase, while ETH’s oversold status resembles previous downturns. The combined $22 billion in expiring contracts is likely to intensify short-term price movements, with the market expected to stabilize after the expiry event.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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