Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: Labor Market Conditions Expected to Remain Largely Unchanged or Slightly Weaken
Jinse Finance reported that the Federal Reserve meeting minutes mentioned that participants generally expected that, under appropriate monetary policy, labor market conditions would remain largely unchanged or only experience a mild weakening. Several participants noted that over the past year, the monthly employment growth numbers consistent with maintaining a stable unemployment rate have declined and may continue to remain low, due to factors such as a large number of workers approaching retirement age and persistently low net immigration. Participants stated that there is uncertainty regarding the outlook for the labor market and believed that downside risks to employment had increased during the intermeeting period. To support this view, participants cited several indicators, including: low hiring and layoff rates, indicating insufficient labor market dynamism; employment growth concentrated in only a few industries; and rising unemployment rates among groups historically more sensitive to economic cycles (such as African Americans and young people). Several participants believed that the continued application of artificial intelligence may reduce labor demand. Some participants also pointed out that survey results showed a decline in household confidence in the labor market.
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