Kalshi Traders Price Bearish Odds on $100K Bitcoin Rebound in 2025

Key Notes

• Bitcoin price rebounded 17% this week but failed to break above the $95,000 resistance despite renewed ETF inflows.
• Prediction markets turned bearish after Kalshi’s market-manipulation lawsuit, with traders cutting odds of Bitcoin price retaking $100,000 before the end of 2025.
• BlackRock’s $117 million outflow and muted whale activity, including Strategy’s pause in weekly purchases, signal weakening bullish conviction.

Bitcoin price rebounded 17%, moving from lows near $82,000 on November 21 to graze the $93,000 level on November 28. Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined $221 million in net inflows between Nov. 25 and Nov. 28. Still, despite closing Friday with a modest $74 million net-positive session, BTC failed to advance beyond the key $95,000 resistance.

BlackRock’s heavy outflow of $117 million stood out. As the world’s largest asset manager, its positioning often sets the tone for other institutional investors globally.

Further underscoring the cautious stance among Bitcoin whales, Strategy Inc. made no purchases last week, ending a 14-week run that began in August. According to Bitbo data , the Michael Saylor-led firm confirmed its last buy on Nov. 17, when it acquired 8,178 BTC for $836 million, lifting total holdings to 649,870 BTC.

Bitcoin’s weak momentum is also reflected in the prediction markets, where Kalshi now faces a major lawsuit over market manipulation and accusations of betting against its own users. Intraday Kalshi order books on Nov. 29 showed traders pricing lower odds of Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 before the end of 2025, with markets increasingly leaning towards a close below $80,000.

Odds on Bitcoin hitting $100,000 dropped 11% while odds on a $110,000 breakout also sank 7% to hit 45% at press time. Meanwhile, the odds of the Bitcoin price closing 2025 below the $80,000 mark rose 8% to hit 36%.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Can Bulls Force a Break Above $95,000 Toward $100,000?

Bitcoin is attempting to rebuild structure after its sharp recovery from the $82,705 SAR cluster. As seen on the BTCUSD daily chart, Bitcoin price is now pinned under at $92,971, with the Keltner Channel mid-band forming a short-term compression that often precedes a directional breakout.

Momentum signals are improving but not yet confirmed. The MACD line has crossed into positive territory for the first time since early November, indicating early bullish momentum. The Woodies CCI also reclaimed the 0-line, with sequential higher lows, indicating renewed buyer participation as traders attempted to buy the dip.

A decisive daily close above $95,000, aligned with the upper Keltner boundary, would re-establish bullish dominance and reopen the path toward $100,000, invalidating the current bearish prediction-market bias.

However, BTC risks another wave of rapid liquidation if the Bitcoin price fails to hold the $90,000 support over the weekend. Consecutive daily closes below $89,500 could weaken bullish momentum and trigger a correction toward $85,880, near the lower Keltner boundary.

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