Bitcoin Eyes 2019 Replay as Fed Prepares to End QT on December 1

The Federal Reserve is preparing to end its quantitative tightening cycle on December 1, 2025, marking the first major balance sheet policy shift in nearly two years. The central bank is expected to halt runoff and reinvest in short-term Treasuries as money markets face mounting stress. Traders across the crypto space quickly connected this development to historical patterns, particularly Bitcoin’s reaction the last time the Fed reversed course on balance sheet contraction in 2019. The decision arrives during a period of heightened liquidity sensitivity, making Bitcoin’s response especially relevant to investors anticipating macro-driven catalysts.

Historical Parallel: Bitcoin’s 7x Rally After 2019 QT End

In 2019, the Fed ended QT when its balance sheet reached $3.8 trillion, pivoting back toward quantitative easing as recession fears began to intensify. In the following 18 months, the Fed expanded its balance sheet by $3.2 trillion. This liquidity surge coincided with a dramatic Bitcoin rally from $3,800 to $29,000, a 7.6x increase that later accelerated during the pandemic. AshCrypto’s widely circulated post emphasizes this sequence, framing the upcoming QT end as a potentially similar ignition point for a major Bitcoin cycle. The comparison has fueled widespread discussion, though analysts caution that the conditions surrounding the 2025 policy shift differ in several critical ways.

BTC’s Initial Drop in 2019 Adds Context to the Narrative

While the 7x headline captures attention, data shows that Bitcoin did not immediately rise after QT ended in 2019. Instead, BTC fell by roughly 35 percent in the months following the balance sheet halt, reflecting lingering macro fears. The explosive rally only began once the full liquidity wave arrived during early QE operations. This timeline has become a key point in ongoing debate, with some analysts arguing that the 2025 transition could follow a similar two-phase pattern. Short-term volatility may emerge as markets recalibrate before any potential upward trend takes hold.

Institutional Positioning Could Shape 2025 Outcomes

One of the biggest differences between 2019 and today is the presence of deep institutional exposure to Bitcoin. Spot ETFs have gathered billions in inflows, sovereign wealth funds maintain small BTC positions, and pension funds have begun allocating to digital assets. This institutional foundation may cushion the type of sharp pullback seen in late 2019, according to several macro strategists. Others argue that institutional exposure could amplify volatility if large entities rebalance on policy news. The net impact remains uncertain, making December a pivotal month for Bitcoin’s macro narrative.

Market Expectations Split on Whether BTC Will Repeat History

Forecasts for Bitcoin vary sharply as the QT end approaches. Bullish analysts cite 2019’s long-term rally and predict targets between $120,000 and $180,000 if liquidity expands meaningfully. More cautious voices warn that inflation pressures remain unresolved, potentially limiting the Fed’s ability to resume aggressive easing. Bitcoin’s recent stability has kept traders on alert, waiting to see whether the December 1 announcement triggers immediate movement or a delayed response. What remains clear is that the market has anchored its expectations to historical precedent, setting the stage for a widely anticipated reaction.