Bitunix Analyst: Nonfarm Payrolls Slow Down Again, Unemployment Rate Surpasses 4.5%, Clear Macroeconomic Weakening Signals, Crypto Market Enters "Policy Trading" Phase

BlockBeats news, on December 17, U.S. nonfarm payrolls in November exceeded expectations with an increase of 64,000 jobs, but this is still significantly below the average level for the year. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, hitting a nearly four-year high. Data for August and September were revised down by a total of 33,000 jobs, indicating that the labor market slowdown is not just a one-month fluctuation, but a continuation of structural cooling. Job growth was highly concentrated in healthcare and construction, while federal government employment continued to shrink. The number of part-time and short-term unemployed increased, reflecting a more conservative approach to hiring by companies.

From a policy perspective, weak nonfarm data combined with a rising unemployment rate further reinforces the market's pricing logic for a "Fed pivot" ahead of schedule. Although average hourly earnings still maintain a 3.5% year-on-year increase, in the context of government shutdowns causing data distortion and frequent revisions, market trust in single data points has declined, with the focus shifting to trends and policy response functions.

For the crypto market, this nonfarm payroll report is a typical case of "directional bullishness but high short-term volatility" data. Rising expectations of rate cuts are favorable for the medium-term liquidity narrative, but worsening employment also increases recession fears. The rate cut narrative is approaching its corrective value, making it easy for leverage unwinding and sharp price swings to occur after the event. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the market uses macroeconomic negatives to complete liquidity cleansing before and after the release of CPI and initial jobless claims data.

Bitunix analyst: The current macro narrative has shifted from "whether inflation is falling" to "whether employment is stalling." The key for the crypto market is not the result of a single nonfarm payroll report, but whether it continues to drive a rewrite of policy expectations, thereby reshaping the capital allocation logic for risk assets.