Before the CPI announcement, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 95.3%
According to CME's "Fed Watch" on July 11, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 28.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 68.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 3.3%.
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