Mizuho Bank: The Fed Has Been "Slapped by Reality," Easing Cycle Is About to Begin
BlockBeats news, on September 6, Mizuho Bank stated that the US August non-farm employment report further confirmed the weakening tone of the labor market, with employment, working hours, and income growth rates having fallen back to pandemic-era levels. Regardless of inflation, the Federal Reserve is almost certain to cut interest rates at the September meeting. A 25 basis point rate cut is almost a foregone conclusion, but if August inflation is weaker than expected, a 50 basis point cut is even more likely. The Fed's previous inflation forecasts have been "slapped in the face" by reality, and its 2026 unemployment rate forecast now faces the risk of not being fulfilled. Previously, they were too pessimistic about inflation and too optimistic about the labor market. It is expected that the Fed will launch a round of sustained easing, aiming to lower interest rates to what it considers a "neutral level," that is, to around 3% by March 2026. The new Fed chair is likely to further ramp up stimulus measures, bringing rates down to near 2%. However, the risk is that if inflation resurges, at least some of the stimulus measures will be withdrawn by 2027. (Golden Ten Data)
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