Retail sales fall short of forecasts, highlighting an unstable recovery and a vulnerable economic future

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Retail sales fall short of forecasts, highlighting an unstable recovery and a vulnerable economic future

Bitget-RWA2025/11/25 14:08

By:Bitget-RWA

In September, US retail sales increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month, missing both the anticipated 0.4% growth and the 0.6% gain seen in August,

as reported by Bloomberg

. The figures, postponed due to a government shutdown, are scheduled for release on Tuesday and serve as a key measure of consumer activity in a delicate economic environment.

Although the pace of growth has slowed

, retail spending remained steady throughout the summer, which could help drive faster economic expansion in the third quarter.

Conflicting trends in retail point to varied consumer patterns. While leading chains such as

Walmart Inc.

and

Gap Inc.

have achieved strong sales by targeting wealthier customers,

other firms like Home Depot Inc. have cautioned

about weaker demand for expensive items and home renovations. This gap highlights an uneven recovery, with higher-income groups benefiting from a robust stock market, while those with lower incomes struggle with increasing prices on essentials

based on recent statistics

Retail sales fall short of forecasts, highlighting an unstable recovery and a vulnerable economic future image 0

The most recent University of Michigan survey

indicates the bleakest view of personal finances since 2009 and the highest perceived risk of job loss in five years. This sentiment is mirrored in the September employment report, which

recorded a 4.4% jobless rate

— up from August — and a gain of 119,000 jobs, surpassing the forecast of 50,000. Since then, traders

have raised the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate reduction

in December to 35%, reflecting cautious optimism.

In the upcoming week, more economic indicators will be released, such as the producer price index and durable goods orders, just before Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book

, which covers October and early November, is anticipated to show signs of slowing job growth and economic activity. Canada’s GDP figures, due on Friday, could also shed light on the region’s economic condition following a second-quarter downturn

according to economic experts

Although consumer spending continues to support economic growth, broader concerns such as employment uncertainty and inflation point to a cautious perspective for the holiday retail season. Retailers will need to combine optimism with careful planning to manage the uneven recovery.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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