Gold Price Forecast: XAU/SD extends its recovery to the $4,400 area

1. In a single week, the U.S. delivered two developments the crypto industry had long lacked: a dedicated issuance framework and explicit backing from the White House. On August 18, the SEC proposed the Crypto Assets Regulation, establishing dedicated rules for token offerings for the first time. The proposal creates two fundraising pathways—up to $5 million over four years and $75 million in any 12-month period—alongside a safe harbor under which tokens can cease to be treated as securities. At the White House crypto meeting the following day, the president publicly called on Congress to pass the CLARITY Act. The shift from regulation by enforcement toward rulemaking provided the common catalyst for crypto repricing this week. 2. The result was a sharp divergence between crypto and equities. Bitcoin gained 22.2% over the week to $77,105, while Ethereum rose 26.4%. Over the same period, the S&P 500 fell 1.86% and the Nikkei 225 declined 3.96%. Real assets also rallied, with gold up 4.90% and Brent crude up 5.68%, while the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly climbed above 5.33%, its highest level since 2007. Equities came under pressure from fiscal and consumer-sector strains, while crypto benefited from the policy catalyst. 3. We caution that leverage, rather than fresh cash, is increasingly fueling this rally. The market-wide leverage ratio rose from 3.24x to 3.78x over the week, the highest level of the current rally. Meanwhile, daily spot ETF net inflows fell from $540 million to $140 million, and digital asset treasury companies recorded no additional purchases across five consecutive observations. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 72, in Greed territory. At $77,105, Bitcoin remains around 39% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,200. We therefore view the current move as a policy-driven recovery rather than the start of a new all-time-high rally. 4. Assets to watch: BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE, XRP, LINK, XAUUSD, UKOUSD, NVDA, PDD.