"BTC OG Insider Whale" Agent Publishes Long Article Refuting Bear Market Views: Confirmation of Bear Market Requires Three Negative Conditions, Current Investor Structure Differs Significantly from 2022

BlockBeats News, January 19, "BTC OG Insider Whale" agent Garrett Jin posted a long article on social media, stating that some analysts have recently compared the current bitcoin price trend to the 2022 market (bearish). There may be some short-term similarities in price patterns, but when looking at the long-term picture, such a comparison is completely absurd.

Garrett Jin explained that the current macro backdrop is completely opposite to that of 2022. At the beginning of 2022, the primary goal of capital was risk aversion, and bitcoin was showing a high distribution structure during a tightening cycle. In the current macro environment, the US liquidity index has broken through both short-term and long-term downtrend lines, and a new upward trend is emerging.

In addition, between 2021 and 2022, bitcoin showed a weekly M-top structure, a pattern usually associated with long-term cycle tops that suppress prices for an extended period. Currently, there is a breakout from a weekly ascending channel. From a probability perspective, this now looks more like a bear trap before a rebound returns to the channel. Although the possibility of a bear market cannot be completely ruled out, it must be noted that the $80,850/$62,000 range has already undergone sufficient consolidation and turnover. The previous process of digesting positions has provided bulls with a better risk-reward ratio: the upside potential is significantly greater than the downside risk.

To restart a bear market, there would need to be a new inflation shock or a major geopolitical crisis on the scale of 2022; central banks would need to resume rate hikes or quantitative tightening of their balance sheets; and at the same time, the price would need to decisively and persistently fall below $80,850. Before these conditions are met, it is too early to assert a structural bear market—such claims are more speculation than analysis.

The biggest difference between the current (early 2026) and 2022 bitcoin investor structure is the shift from retail-driven, high-leverage speculation to institution-driven, structurally long-term holding. In 2022, bitcoin experienced a typical "crypto-native bear market" driven by retail panic selling and cascading leveraged liquidations. Now, bitcoin has entered a much more mature institutional era, characterized by stable underlying demand, locked-up supply, and institution-level volatility.