Luxury Watches Rise as Bitcoin Falls: An Unexpected Divergence

Limited but Selective Recovery in Luxury Watches

According to WatchCharts data, the luxury watch index in the secondary market has risen by approximately 4% over the last six months. In the same period, Bitcoin has fallen by around 25%. This divergence suggests that the post-pandemic “rise and fall together” tendency is no longer applicable.

The index, which covers thousands of references tracked by WatchCharts, particularly reveals that prices in the upper segment have reached a base. A report prepared by Morgan Stanley in collaboration with WatchCharts emphasized that this price increase reflects a stabilization process rather than a new bull market. According to the bank, after two years of declines, the clearing of excess supply and the reduction of forced sales towards the end of 2025 have alleviated pressure on prices.

During the same period, luxury watch manufacturers’ average global retail price increase of 7% from the start of 2025 has acted as a strong anchor for secondary market values. While transaction volumes remain weak, the reduced eagerness of sellers to offer aggressive discounts has allowed prices to recover gradually.

Decoupling of Cryptocurrencies, Metals, and Physical Scarcity

In 2024, the long-standing correlation between cryptocurrencies and luxury watches visibly deteriorated for the first time. While Bitcoin rose due to spot ETF expectations, watch prices continued to fall because of tightening financial conditions and decreased retail speculation. The recent recovery has remained confined to brands with strong pricing power.

The report highlights Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet as standouts in the secondary market, whereas most other brands are traded at deep discounts. Morgan Stanley notes that controlled secondary sales channels, such as Rolex’s certified pre-owned program, have reduced volatility and supported upper segment prices.

Another factor clarifying the situation is the sharp rise in commodity markets. From the beginning of 2025, gold has increased by approximately 70%, and silver by 150%. Physical supply constraints, industrial demand, and policy risks have heightened volatility in metals, leaving cryptocurrencies out of this safe haven pursuit. The divergence shows that investors now make more conscious choices between rapidly moving financial instruments and assets based on physical scarcity.