Bitcoin lags behind gold as worries over yen intervention impact risk assets

Market Overview: Bitcoin and Broader Asset Movements

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless noted)

Bitcoin is facing downward pressure as worries about the Japanese yen’s stability and fiscal challenges have led to a disconnect between cryptocurrencies and more traditional safe-haven assets.

Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin declined by 0.8%, falling below $88,000, while Ether dropped over 1.6% to just under $2,900. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index slipped by 1.54%.

The Japanese yen surged more than 1.4% against the U.S. dollar after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced that Japan would take decisive steps to counteract speculative and unusual currency movements.

Although Takaichi did not specify which market actions were concerning, yields on Japan’s 10-year government bonds recently hit their highest level in 27 years before easing slightly.

Market participants are also interpreting a recent “rate check” by the New York Federal Reserve as a potential sign of coordinated intervention with Japan, prompting investors to move away from riskier assets as the yen carry trade unwinds.

Michael Burry, known for profiting from the subprime mortgage crisis, recently highlighted that Japanese bond yields are closing in on global rates, suggesting that repatriation of capital may be imminent.

This could mean that nearly $5 trillion in overseas investments, much of it in the U.S., may return to Japan to capitalize on higher yields. As a result, capital has exited risk assets in anticipation. The Nikkei 225 index dropped 1.8%, and futures for the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also declined.

Rather than flowing into Bitcoin, this capital has shifted toward gold. The precious metal surpassed $5,000 per ounce for the first time today, reaching $5,090. According to Greg Cipolaro, global head of research at NYDIG, Bitcoin’s 24/7 trading, deep liquidity, and instant settlement may actually be limiting its appeal as a safe haven.

“During periods of market stress and uncertainty, liquidity preference takes precedence, which tends to disadvantage Bitcoin more than gold,” Cipolaro noted in a message to CoinDesk.

On-chain data also points to internal weakness. According to CryptoQuant, long-term Bitcoin holders are selling at a loss for the first time since October 2023.

Investors are closely watching this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where rates are expected to remain unchanged, but Chair Jerome Powell’s comments will be closely scrutinized.

Additionally, the risk of a U.S. government shutdown—currently estimated at 79% on Polymarket and 78% on Kalshi—adds further uncertainty as major tech companies prepare to release earnings and forecasts.

Further Reading

For more on today’s altcoin and derivatives activity, check out Crypto Markets Today.

Key Events to Watch

For a full rundown of this week’s events, visit CoinDesk’s Crypto Week Ahead.

• Crypto:
  • No scheduled events.
• Macro:
  • Jan. 26, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Durable Goods Orders MoM for November (previous: -2.2%)
  • Jan. 26, 10:30 a.m.: U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for January (previous: -10.9)
• Earnings (FactSet estimates):
  • No scheduled earnings releases.

Token-Related Developments

For more details, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Week Ahead.

• Governance Votes & Calls:
  • Maple Finance is voting on allocating 25% of protocol revenue to the Syrup Strategic Fund for the first half of 2026. Voting ends Jan. 26.
  • Lido is voting to introduce a dynamic DVT incentive model and update the Rewards Share Committee to support Lido V3 features. Voting ends Jan. 26.
• Unlocks:
  • Jan. 26: Bitget token (BGB) will unlock 10.5% of its circulating supply, valued at $508.2 million.
• Token Launches:
  • Jan. 26: Rainbow (RBNW) airdrop snapshot scheduled.

Upcoming Conferences

For a complete list, visit CoinDesk’s Crypto Week Ahead.

• No major conferences scheduled.

Market Performance Snapshot

• BTC: Down 1.5% since Friday, now at $87,928.03 (24hr: -0.67%)
• ETH: Down 1.5% to $2,897.28 (24hr: -1.31%)
• CoinDesk 20: Down 2.05% to 2,681.29 (24hr: -1.34%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate: Down 2 basis points to 3.05%
• BTC funding rate on Binance: 0.0051% (annualized: 5.5856%)

CD20, Jan. 26, 2026 (CoinDesk)

• DXY: Down 0.92% to 97.46
• Gold futures: Up 1.42% to $4,983.10
• Silver futures: Up 7.15% to $103.26
• Nikkei 225: Down 1.79% to 52,885.25
• Hang Seng: Unchanged at 26,765.52
• FTSE: Unchanged at 10,143.44
• Euro Stoxx 50: Down 0.13% to 5,948.20
• DJIA: Down 0.58% to 49,098.71
• S&P 500: Unchanged at 6,915.61
• Nasdaq Composite: Up 0.28% to 23,501.24
• S&P/TSX Composite: Up 0.43% to 33,144.98
• S&P 40 Latin America: Up 1.5% to 3,591.57
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield: Down 2.8 basis points to 4.211%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures: Down 0.16% to 6,933.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures: Unchanged at 25,680.50
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures: Down 0.76% to 49,180.00

Bitcoin Metrics

• BTC Market Share: 59.79% (-0.13%)
• ETH/BTC Ratio: 0.03294 (1.31%)
• Hashrate (7-day average): 951 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $39.17
• Total Fees: 1.93 BTC / $169,938
• CME Futures Open Interest: 124,740 BTC
• BTC in Gold: 17.2 oz.
• BTC vs Gold Market Cap: 5.87%

Technical Outlook

TA for Jan 26

• Bitcoin is encountering strong resistance after closing the week below $88,000 and being rejected at the 50-week exponential moving average of $96,700.
• If Bitcoin does not reclaim $88,000, it is likely to consolidate between $80,000 and $88,000 as the market absorbs local volatility before attempting a broader breakout.

Crypto-Related Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed at $216.95 (-2.77%), pre-market at $212.06 (-2.25%)
• Circle Internet (CRCL): Closed at $71.33 (-0.03%), pre-market at $69.70 (-2.29%)
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $31.90 (+3.17%), pre-market at $31.10 (-2.51%)
• Bullish (BLSH): Closed at $35.75 (-2.00%), pre-market at $35.49 (-0.73%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): Closed at $10.50 (+2.04%), pre-market at $10.28 (-2.10%)
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): Closed at $17.28 (+1.17%), pre-market at $16.97 (-1.79%)
• Core Scientific (CORZ): Closed at $18.79 (+3.93%), pre-market at $18.54 (-1.33%)
• CleanSpark (CLSK): Closed at $13.71 (+3.94%), pre-market at $13.40 (-2.26%)
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $49.14 (+4.71%), pre-market at $48.36 (-1.59%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): Closed at $14.99 (-4.83%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): Closed at $163.11 (+1.32%), pre-market at $159.31 (-2.33%)
• Strive (ASST): Closed at $0.87 (+0.06%), pre-market at $0.85 (-1.78%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): Closed at $9.75 (-0.31%), pre-market at $9.50 (-2.56%)
• Upexi (UPXI): Closed at $2.00 (+1.01%), pre-market at $1.91 (-4.50%)
• Lite Strategy (LITS): Closed at $1.27 (-3.79%)

ETF Fund Flows

Spot Bitcoin ETFs

• Net daily outflows: -$103.5 million
• Total net inflows: $56.48 billion
• Total BTC held: Approximately 1.29 million

Spot Ether ETFs

• Net daily outflows: -$41.7 million
• Total net inflows: $12.33 billion
• Total ETH held: Approximately 6.02 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Highlights

• Europe’s Growing Dependence on U.S. Natural Gas Increases Trump’s Influence (The New York Times): Rising tensions over Greenland have raised concerns that the Trump administration could use the U.S. energy sector as leverage against Europe.
• Dollar Drops to Four-Month Low as Gold Surpasses $5,000 (Bloomberg): The dollar continued to weaken on Monday amid speculation of possible joint intervention with Japanese authorities to support the yen. Stocks retreated, while gold broke above $5,000 an ounce.
• India to Cut Car Tariffs to 40% in EU Trade Agreement (Reuters): India is preparing to reduce tariffs on European car imports to 40% from as high as 110%, marking the largest opening of its market yet as a free trade deal with the EU nears completion.