Bitcoin and ether price fluctuations become more accessible to trade with Polymarket’s latest contracts

Polymarket Introduces Volatility Betting on Bitcoin and Ethereum

Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, has launched new betting contracts based on Volmex's volatility indices for bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH), allowing users to speculate on market fluctuations throughout the year.

Two new markets, What will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit in 2026? and What will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit in 2026?, became available for trading on Monday at 4:13 PM ET.

These contracts reward "Yes" holders if, by December 31 at 23:59, any one-minute interval ("candle") on Volmex's 30-day implied volatility indices for bitcoin or ether reaches or surpasses a predetermined threshold. If this does not occur, the outcome is "No." A one-minute candle represents the price movement of an asset—including its opening, highest, lowest, and closing values—within a single minute, visually resembling a candle with a body and wicks.

Purchasing "Yes" shares means you are betting on increased volatility, expecting more dramatic price movements. Conversely, buying "No" shares reflects a belief in a steadier market. In both scenarios, the wager is on the magnitude of price changes, not whether prices will rise or fall.

With these new offerings, Polymarket is making volatility trading more accessible, providing a straightforward way for individuals to participate in a market segment that has traditionally been reserved for institutional investors and large-scale traders. Historically, these participants have relied on intricate options strategies or volatility futures to capitalize on anticipated shifts in volatility.

"Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, launching contracts on Volmex's BVIV and EVIV Indices is a major milestone for Volmex and crypto derivatives broadly," said Cole Kennelly, founder and CEO of Volmex Labs, in a message to CoinDesk.

Kennelly further noted, "This collaboration introduces institutional-quality BTC and ETH volatility benchmarks to a user-friendly prediction market, making it simpler for traders and investors to express their views on crypto implied volatility."

Initial trading activity suggests there is a 35% probability that bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) will climb to 80%—double its current level of 40%—this year. The ether volatility contract is showing a similar expectation, with odds for a rise to 90% from the present 50%.

It is worth noting that, since spot bitcoin ETFs were introduced in the U.S. two years ago, the relationship between bitcoin's implied volatility and its spot price has turned mostly negative. This means that increases in volatility are now more likely to coincide with price declines rather than rallies.