Brinker International (NYSE:EAT) surpasses Q4 CY2025 sales forecasts, shares surge

Brinker International Surpasses Q4 2025 Expectations

Brinker International (NYSE:EAT), a well-known casual dining chain, exceeded analysts’ revenue forecasts in the fourth quarter of calendar year 2025, posting a 6.9% year-over-year increase to $1.45 billion. The company’s updated full-year revenue outlook now stands at $5.80 billion (midpoint), which is 0.7% higher than what Wall Street anticipated. Adjusted earnings per share reached $2.87, outpacing consensus estimates by 9.2%.

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Q4 2025 Highlights for Brinker International (EAT)

• Revenue: $1.45 billion, surpassing the $1.41 billion estimate (6.9% YoY growth, 2.9% above expectations)
• Adjusted EPS: $2.87, beating the $2.63 forecast (9.2% above expectations)
• Adjusted EBITDA: $223.5 million, ahead of the $212.6 million estimate (15.4% margin, 5.1% beat)
• Full-Year Revenue Guidance: Raised to $5.80 billion (midpoint), up 2.6% from previous guidance
• Full-Year Adjusted EPS Guidance: Increased to $10.65 (midpoint), a 4.4% rise
• Operating Margin: 11.6%, consistent with the prior year’s quarter
• Free Cash Flow Margin: 10.7%, down from 12.4% a year ago
• Total Locations: 1,627 at quarter’s end, up slightly from 1,624 last year
• Same-Store Sales: Up 7.5% year over year (compared to 24.2% in the same period last year)
• Market Cap: $6.99 billion

“Chili’s achieved another outstanding quarter, leading the industry with 9% growth. Combined with last year’s performance, this results in a remarkable 43% two-year comparable sales increase,” commented Kevin Hochman, President & CEO of Brinker International.

About Brinker International

Founded in Dallas by Norman Brinker, Brinker International (NYSE:EAT) operates several popular restaurant brands, including Chili’s, Maggiano’s Little Italy, and It’s Just Wings.

Examining Revenue Trends

Long-term growth is a key indicator of a company’s strength. While any business can have a strong quarter, sustained expansion over years is a sign of quality.

With $5.69 billion in revenue over the past year, Brinker International ranks among the largest restaurant operators, leveraging its strong brand recognition to influence customer choices.

Over the last six years, Brinker International’s sales have grown at a compound annual rate of 9.3%, despite minimal expansion in restaurant count. This suggests that increased sales at existing locations have been the primary growth driver.

In the most recent quarter, revenue climbed 6.9% year over year to $1.45 billion, exceeding analyst expectations by 2.9%.

Looking Forward

Analysts project a 3.1% revenue increase over the next year, which is slower than the growth rate seen over the past six years. This suggests that Brinker International may face some challenges in maintaining demand for its menu offerings.

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Restaurant Operations Overview

Restaurant Count

The total number of restaurant locations is a key factor in determining a chain’s sales potential and growth speed.

Brinker International reported 1,627 locations in the latest quarter, maintaining a steady count over the past two years, while some competitors have expanded aggressively.

This stable footprint suggests the company is focusing on operational improvements and profitability rather than rapid expansion, indicating consistent demand for its offerings.

Performance at Existing Restaurants

Growth in restaurant numbers tells only part of the story. The success of existing locations—measured by same-store sales—reveals whether management should expand or contract its footprint. Same-store sales reflect both customer traffic and average spending per visit.

Over the past two years, Brinker International has excelled, with average annual same-store sales growth of 15.4%. This strong performance, despite a flat restaurant count, points to higher prices and increased customer visits at established locations.

However, in the latest quarter, same-store sales growth slowed to 7.5% year over year, marking a notable deceleration. It remains to be seen whether the company can reignite its growth momentum.

Summary of Q4 Results

This quarter was a clear “beat and raise” for Brinker International. The company not only exceeded same-store sales expectations but also delivered revenue above Wall Street’s forecasts and raised its full-year guidance. Overall, these results were robust, with shares rising 7.7% to $169.43 after the announcement.

While the recent performance is promising, a single quarter’s results are not enough to determine if the stock is a strong buy. Long-term fundamentals and valuation are more important factors to consider.