Schneider National’s stock drops following disappointing Q4 results and a subdued forecast for 2026

Schneider National Misses Q4 Targets, Shares Drop Sharply

Schneider National, a leading multimodal transportation company, reported fourth-quarter results and a 2026 outlook that fell short of market expectations, causing its stock to tumble by 16% in after-hours trading.

For the fourth quarter, Schneider (NYSE: SNDR) posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.13, which was $0.07 below both analyst forecasts and last year’s figure. Total revenue reached $1.4 billion, a 5% increase year-over-year, but still $50 million under consensus estimates.

During a call with analysts, company leaders explained that while market conditions were weaker than anticipated in November, December saw a significant tightening due to harsh winter weather in the Midwest. However, this late uptick in demand was not enough to offset earlier softness. Additionally, the dedicated segment was impacted by unexpected shutdowns in automotive production.

Higher costs from purchased transportation, particularly due to rising spot truckload rates and weather disruptions, along with increased healthcare expenses, contributed to the earnings miss.

Key Performance Metrics

The truckload (TL) division saw revenue climb 9% year-over-year to $610 million, driven by a 12% rise in truck count, though revenue per truck per week slipped by 2%.

Dedicated segment revenue jumped 13% from the previous year, largely due to the acquisition of Cowan Systems in Q4 2024. The number of dedicated trucks increased by 18%, but revenue per truck per week declined by 4%. The network (one-way) fleet reported relatively stable results.

The TL segment achieved an adjusted operating ratio of 96.2%, improving by 30 basis points year-over-year and 60 basis points from the previous quarter. The dedicated business faced higher costs from onboarding new clients, having added service for 956 trucks last year, while the network segment continued to operate at a loss.

Management noted that stricter regulatory oversight is affecting the driver workforce. They observed that the least efficient capacity is leaving the market, and some shippers are requesting smaller, short-term contracts as available capacity shrinks. The network segment’s exposure to spot rates is at record levels, positioning the company for a significant rate shift.

SONAR: Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI.USA) for 2026 (blue), 2025 (yellow), 2024 (green), and 2023 (pink). This index reflects the proportion of loads rejected by carriers, serving as a gauge of truck capacity. Current figures indicate a tightening truckload market.

SONAR: National Truckload Index (NTIL.USA) for 2026 (blue), 2025 (yellow), 2024 (green), and 2023 (pink). This index tracks the average linehaul spot rates for dry van loads across 250,000 lanes, using a seven-day moving average and excluding fuel. Spot rates rose during peak season as driver availability tightened.

Persistent winter storms and limited capacity have kept rates elevated in recent days.

Intermodal and Logistics Segments

Intermodal revenue slipped 3% year-over-year to $268 million. While load volumes increased by 3%, revenue per load dropped by 5%. The segment’s operating ratio improved by 50 basis points to 93.3%. Container turns rose by 4% during the quarter, and management believes they can boost volumes by 20–25% without expanding the container fleet.

Schneider remains in discussions with all major railroads as new service alliances form ahead of Union Pacific’s (NYSE: UNP) planned merger with Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC). The company is satisfied with its current partnership with CSX (NASDAQ: CSX) in the East but continues to engage with both eastern railroads.

Logistics Performance

Logistics revenue edged up 2% year-over-year to $329 million. However, the operating ratio worsened by 180 basis points to 99.2%, as higher spot rates drove up purchased transportation costs, more than offsetting gains in gross revenue per order.

2026 Guidance Falls Short

Schneider’s full-year 2026 adjusted EPS forecast ranges from $0.70 to $1.00, below the consensus estimate of $1.07 at the time of release. The company expects stronger performance in the latter half of the year, assuming typical seasonal trends from January onward, and acknowledged a cautious approach at the lower end of the guidance.

For 2025, the company now projects adjusted EPS of $0.63, down from the roughly $0.70 anticipated in the third quarter and well below the initial 2025 outlook of $0.90 to $1.20.

Schneider has already achieved $40 million in previously announced cost savings and has identified another $40 million in reductions for 2026.

Net capital expenditures are projected at $400–$450 million for 2026, primarily for equipment replacement, compared to $289 million last year.

The company reduced its net debt leverage to 0.3x from 0.7x at the end of 2024. Free cash flow will be used for share buybacks and dividends, with a new $150 million repurchase program announced. Schneider is also considering potential acquisitions.

Leadership Transition

On Wednesday, Schneider announced that President and CEO Mark Rourke will transition to executive chairman of the board on July 1. Jim Filter, currently executive vice president and president of transportation and logistics, will take over as president and CEO. Filter, a 27-year company veteran, is also expected to join the board in the future.

As part of this succession plan, current Chairman James Welch will become the board’s lead independent director.