Analyst: Strong Nonfarm Payrolls Likely to Weigh on Rate Cut Probability in H1, But It's Still Too Early to Rule Out Completely
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Glonghui, February 11|Investinglive analyst Justin Low stated that all eyes are on the non-farm payroll data, with market participants waiting for the news to react accordingly. Currently, traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a total of about 60 basis points this year, and have already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut at the June meeting. The weak consumer outlook presented yesterday has naturally reinforced this pricing expectation. If today's non-farm payroll data is strong and the unemployment rate remains stable, it would indicate that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged for a longer period. In an optimistic scenario, this could significantly reduce the risk of rate cuts in the first half of the year. However, given the mixed signals from yesterday's US consumer data, it is still too early to completely rule out the possibility of further rate cuts in June or July.
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