A crypto-focused market analyst is betting that an “$8 trillion green light” in global liquidity by the end of 2026 could drive the next major leg of the digital asset cycle, with XRP and the broader crypto market positioned to benefit once the current sideways grind breaks.
The thesis leans heavily on macro strategist Raoul Pal’s “everything code” framework, which treats global liquidity as the dominant force behind Bitcoin and crypto price action.
The $8 Trillion Question: Debt Rollovers, Rate Cuts
At the center of the video is Pal’s claim that global liquidity explains “90% of the moves in Bitcoin” and that the next major upswing is already being telegraphed by financial conditions. According to his analysis, governments face roughly $8 trillion of debt to roll this year, forcing a fresh round of currency debasement and liquidity creation.
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Levi, the host of the crypto-focused show, explains that last year’s crypto weakness, including the October 10 event he calls the largest liquidation in history on Binance and several Asian exchanges, was mainly a liquidity “air pocket.”
The U.S. Treasury rebuilt its cash account ahead of a government shutdown while the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo facility was largely drained, and Chinese liquidity hadn’t picked up yet. That “decoupled” crypto from other risk assets and kept prices depressed even as equities hit new highs.
Looking forward, Levi links the $8 trillion figure to expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut rates aggressively toward 1%, a level he says is “pretty much” the target being discussed in media and political circles.
Combined with recent changes to U.S. bank capital rules (Pal cites tweaks to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio and Basel III risk weightings for government bonds), this could allow banks to absorb more sovereign debt, lever up, and effectively create more liquidity that eventually bleeds into risk assets, including crypto.
Gold’s Lead & Crypto’s Lag With a Sharp XRP Angle
A key part of the thesis is the relationship between precious metals and digital assets. Both the analyst and Pal highlight that gold and silver tend to respond first when financial conditions loosen, with crypto following after a lag of roughly three to four months. “Gold actually mirrors financial conditions… it leads crypto,” Pal notes, and the host extends that logic directly to XRP.
The current divergence — strong moves in silver and gold while XRP “is down in the gutter” — is framed as a familiar pattern rather than a red flag.
Levi points back to 2008–09, 2017 and 2020, arguing that metals typically rally during or near market stress while crypto is still falling, before capital later rotates into digital assets once a bottom is in.
He cautions that further downside and fresh liquidations remain possible, but sees less systemic risk than in 2022, when Celsius, FTX and other major players collapsed.
The implied trade: watch metals as an early warning system. If gold and silver extend their rally into late 2024 and financial conditions continue to ease, he expects a sizable liquidity wave to hit crypto into 2025–26, with XRP among the main beneficiaries for investors willing to sit through the current chop.
People Also Ask:
From estimates of how much government debt needs to be rolled this year, which the analyst argues will require large-scale liquidity creation.
The video attributes this to a specific liquidity shock, the October 10 liquidation event, and a temporary withdrawal of dollar liquidity from the system.
The analyst views metals as leading indicators of easier financial conditions; historically, strong metal rallies have preceded major crypto up-trends by a few months.
Not really. The host acknowledges the possibility of new liquidation events and lower prices, but believes systemic contagion risk is lower than in the last bear market.
