Next Friday's core PCE data will reveal clues about the Federal Reserve's inflation target.

According to reports, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent previously predicted that inflation could rebound to near the Federal Reserve's 2% target around mid-year, possibly referring to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Due to the government shutdown, the latest available data is the core PCE inflation rate of 2.8% for November last year. The core PCE Price Index for December will be released on February 20, with forecasts suggesting the core inflation rate will remain at 2.8%. Data for January will take more time to be published. Historical data shows that the average increase in CPI is usually about 0.5 percentage points higher than PCE.