Calm conditions for Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) shares offer an appealing opportunity for an options strategy
Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL): An Options Opportunity for Upside Speculation
Alphabet shares (GOOG, GOOGL) offer an intriguing prospect for options traders seeking single-stock strategies focused on upward movement. While GOOG maintains a strong reputation—earning a 56% Buy score from the Barchart Technical Opinion—its recent performance has lagged. Historically, March tends to bring improved results, making GOOGL a potential candidate for bullish speculators.
Institutional Options Activity Signals
Recent options flow data, which tracks large block trades typically executed by institutional players, reveals a predominantly negative sentiment for GOOG. This is especially evident in sessions marked by heightened pessimism. Notably, on February 12, net trade sentiment dropped nearly $108 million below neutral. However, much of this activity involved selling call options, which may indicate risk management strategies rather than outright bearishness.
Related Insights from Barchart
Understanding Volatility Skew and Market Sentiment
One of the most telling indicators for GOOG’s near-term direction is the volatility skew, which measures implied volatility (IV) across different strike prices. Currently, IV for both puts and calls remains steady near the current price, with only a slight, gradual increase at the extremes. While put IV is typically higher, the difference compared to call IV is minimal, suggesting a generally stable outlook.
This calm in the options market is notable, especially since GOOGL shares have declined this month. Despite concerns about a potential AI-driven bubble, major investors appear unconcerned, which may present an opportunity for contrarian traders.
Defining GOOG’s Trading Range
While we have insight into institutional sentiment, predicting specific price movements requires further analysis. The Black-Scholes Expected Move calculator, a standard tool for options pricing, projects a range between $286.45 and $325.59 for GOOG by March 20 expiration.
This range is based on the assumption that stock returns follow a lognormal distribution, placing GOOG’s likely outcome within one standard deviation of its current price, factoring in volatility and time to expiration. While this is a logical estimate, it’s important to remember that all models about future prices are based on assumptions, not certainties.
Ultimately, the goal for analysts is to reduce uncertainty, not just echo what screening tools suggest. Valuable analysis narrows down possible outcomes, helping traders make more informed decisions.
One way to further refine expectations, using Barchart’s resources, is to examine Seasonal Returns.
Spotting a Tactical Trade
GOOG’s lackluster performance this month is consistent with its historical February results, averaging a 3.05% decline. So far, the stock is down about 10% since the start of the month.
Interestingly, March tends to be more favorable, with average returns improving to nearly 1%. While this isn’t a dramatic turnaround—and past negative performances do weigh on the average—the relaxed approach to hedging by institutional traders suggests a more optimistic outlook for March.
Although large investors aren’t infallible, their lack of urgency in buying downside protection implies that GOOG could rebound in the coming month.
Given this context, a 310/315 bull call spread expiring March 20 appears attractive. For maximum profit, GOOG would need to close above $315, which falls comfortably within the Black-Scholes projected range. If the trade plays out as planned, the potential return exceeds 108%.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Suriname’s Major Oil Find Encounters Economic Challenges Amidst Growth Prospects
Ruble Stablecoin Issuer A7A5 Boldly Targets 20% of Russian Trade Settlements Amid Global Shift
This $0.04 New Altcoin Is Building a 500% Upside Case for 2027, Analysts Say

France earns crypto kidnapping capital title as 2026 starts with violent streak
