- Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR has dropped below 1 for the first time in 1–2 years.
- The signal mirrors conditions seen during the May 2022 LUNA crash.
- Long-term holders are now realizing significant losses, according to Glassnode.
The Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR has fallen below 1 for the first time in nearly two years, according to on-chain data shared by Glassnode. This rare shift suggests that long-term Bitcoin holders are now selling their coins at a loss — something not seen since the dramatic market stress of May 2022.
SOPR, or Spent Output Profit Ratio, measures whether coins moved on-chain are being sold at a profit or loss. When the metric stays above 1, it means investors are generally selling at a gain. But when it drops below 1, it signals that losses are being locked in.
For long-term holders — typically defined as wallets holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days — this is especially significant. These investors are often seen as the market’s strongest hands. When they start realizing losses, it reflects deeper market stress.
Echoes of the LUNA Collapse
The last time the Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR dipped below 1 was during the collapse of Terra (LUNA) in May 2022. That event triggered widespread panic across the crypto market, wiping out billions in value and pushing Bitcoin into a prolonged bear phase.
While today’s market structure is different, the similarity in on-chain behavior is raising eyebrows. Historically, such moments have either marked late-stage capitulation or periods of intense fear before stabilization.
It’s important to note that SOPR dropping below 1 does not automatically mean a further crash is coming. In some cases, it has preceded market bottoms, as weak hands exit and stronger accumulation begins.
What This Means for Bitcoin
The fall in Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR suggests that even seasoned investors are feeling pressure. This shift could indicate reduced confidence in the short term, but it may also signal a cleansing phase in the market cycle.
On-chain metrics like this often provide insight into investor psychology. When long-term holders begin to sell at a loss, it highlights emotional stress — but also potential opportunity.
As always, the broader macro environment, liquidity conditions, and institutional flows will play a critical role in determining Bitcoin’s next move. For now, all eyes remain on whether this signal marks deeper downside or a turning point.
