Walmart and Target Diverge, Market Focuses on Two New CEOs

Key Points

• Walmart and Target both welcome new CEOs, but the situations they face are vastly different.
• Neil Saunders, Managing Director and Retail Analyst at GlobalData, states: Walmart CEO John Furner’s task is to “keep the ship steady,” while Target CEO Michael Fiddelke must “tell the story of the future Target.”
• Walmart will release its Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings report on Thursday, while Target will report on March 3.

As Walmart and Target release their holiday quarter earnings, investors may quickly look past the short-term numbers and focus more on the long-term outlook for these two major retail chains under new leadership, as well as U.S. consumer spending expectations for 2026.

Both companies completed leadership transitions this month: Walmart CEO John Furner and Target CEO Michael Fiddelke are both long-time insiders who officially took office on February 1.

The two rivals face the same macroeconomic challenges: U.S. consumers are still spending, but are becoming more cautious. Inflation and tariffs have pushed up the prices of essentials like food, causing some consumers to hesitate on discretionary purchases.

However, despite both having new leaders, the paths ahead for the two companies are starkly different.

As of Tuesday’s close, Walmart’s share price has soared about 163% over the past five years and about 24% over the past year, reaching a 52-week high on Tuesday. In contrast, Target’s share price has plummeted about 40% over the past five years and fallen 9% over the past year.

The diverging stock performances reflect a huge revenue gap:

• Walmart attracts consumers across income levels, with strong momentum in high-margin businesses like online sales and advertising. The company expects full-year net sales growth of 4.8%–5.1%.
• Target, on the other hand, is struggling with slowing sales and declining foot traffic, and is expected to see a drop in full-year sales.

According to Saunders at GlobalData, Walmart CEO Furner has taken the helm of a company that is “fundamentally solid, with excellent growth momentum.”

“In many ways, his job is to keep the ship steady and look for ways to accelerate.”

Meanwhile, with Target’s annual sales having been flat for the past four years, Saunders says CEO Fiddelke must “sell the future of Target.”

“I think he needs to inject energy and tell the market: ‘I’m confident in this role, excited for Target’s future. We’re going to make changes, reshape the business, and return to our peak.’”

Walmart: Continuing the Winning Streak

Walmart will release its fourth-quarter earnings before the bell on Thursday.

The retail giant has been active recently: in addition to appointing a new CEO, the company’s market value surpassed $1 trillion in early February; in January, Walmart moved its stock listing from the NYSE to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, aiming for investors to see it as a tech-driven retailer more akin to Amazon.

Outgoing CEO Doug McMillon stated upon his departure that, as the company accelerates its AI efforts and reshapes its business and shopping experiences, he is passing the baton to Furner. Walmart has partnered with OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini—two major AI platforms—to simplify the shopping process for consumers.

Furner has spent decades at Walmart, rising through the ranks just like his predecessor. As the former CEO of Walmart U.S., he was responsible for the company’s largest business segment. According to Goldman Sachs retail analyst Kate McShane, Furner was chosen in part for his success in driving Walmart’s e-commerce expansion, a key to the company’s future.

In May, Walmart achieved its first ever quarterly profit in its U.S. and global e-commerce business, with same-day delivery, advertising, and third-party marketplace all showing growth. Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe notes that Walmart investors want to “maintain the current advantages”: continued e-commerce growth, leadership in food, broader customer coverage, and greater appeal to high-income groups.

However, this quarter’s holiday results could mark a turning point for the retail sector: Amazon is poised to surpass Walmart for the first time as the world’s highest-earning retailer, although most of its profits come from technology services like cloud computing and advertising.

Saunders notes that while the two are not directly comparable, “the symbolic significance is huge.” Walmart relies on its stores for fresh food delivery and online order pickup; Amazon recently announced the closure of some of its fresh food convenience stores and is converting some locations to Whole Foods supermarkets.

As the largest food retailer in the U.S. by revenue, Walmart also faces pressure from discount chain Aldi’s expansion and must keep an eye on Kroger—which recently hired former Walmart executive Gregg Foran as its new CEO.

In an internal memo to employees on his second day as CEO, Furner said his 32-year experience at Walmart would shape his leadership style, and he believes the company is “ready to lead the next era of retail.”

“The next era will be unlocked by technology and AI, simplifying processes, optimizing inventory, freeing up time, and allowing teams to focus on what matters most: serving customers and each other.”

Target: Fighting for a Comeback

For Fiddelke, Target’s earnings report will be the market’s most in-depth look yet at the discount fashion retailer’s return to growth roadmap.

The company plans to hold an earnings call at its Minneapolis headquarters on March 3, where it will release holiday season results and its outlook for the fiscal year.

The large retailer is facing a series of challenges: declining store and website traffic, customer complaints about store environments, and controversies stemming from its political and social stances (including scaling back diversity commitments and not publicly opposing stricter immigration enforcement at home).

With sales falling, Target has begun trimming its workforce: last year it cut 1,800 headquarters jobs—the first large-scale layoffs in a decade.

Goldman Sachs’ McShane notes that Target’s earnings are more closely watched than Walmart’s because its transformation strategy and cycle are full of uncertainties. Investors are debating how much the company needs to spend on merchandise, marketing, and store labor to revive sales.

“Walmart’s digitalization in omnichannel, automation, and third-party marketplace is much more aggressive than Target’s,” she added, noting that Target doesn’t want to become Amazon or Walmart, “but it must clearly define what it wants to be and how to compete.”

Fiddelke has already signaled reforms: last week, he announced in an internal employee email that Target would add staff to stores while cutting around 500 distribution center and regional office positions. He also restructured the executive team, reinstated the Chief Merchandising Officer role, and saw several top executives depart.

Target also opened a new concept store in SoHo, New York, focusing on fashion positioning. McShane said this model may be rolled out to more stores nationwide.

Strengthening product appeal is at the core of Fiddelke’s strategy. In his first week, he outlined four major priorities in a letter to employees and customers:

1. Optimize merchandise strategy
2. Enhance customer experience
3. Accelerate technology adoption
4. Strengthen teams and communities

Jefferies’ Tarlowe said Target’s upcoming investor event “is an opportunity to communicate to the market: we’ve heard your expectations, and this is our path to deliver.”

“Change is happening—the only question is whether the market sees and acknowledges it.”

Editor: Guo Mingyu