thecryptobasic.com 
A well-known market commentator believes the bullish $XRP inflection point will happen when most investors least expect it.
$XRP has been stuck in a tough stretch. Over the past five months, the asset has fallen 60% from its July 2025 all-time high of $3.66. This steady decline has cooled enthusiasm across the market, especially among traders who expected the rally to continue.
Despite the pullback, Vandell Aljarrah, co-founder of Black Swan Capitalist, argues that the real breakout will arrive when most investors least expect it, as attention moves elsewhere.
Key Points
- $XRP has fallen 60% from its $3.66 all-time high reached in July 2025, marking a prolonged five-month decline.
- Amid the prevalent downtrend, Aljarrah believes $XRP’s breakout above $3.66 would likely occur while most investors look in the wrong direction.
- In a past comment, he compared $XRP’s setup to silver’s sharp rally and suggested a similar asymmetric move could unfold in 2026.
- $XRP had previously engineered such a sudden explosive run, rallying by 66,000% in 2017 and then soaring 580% in 2024.
Aljarrah Says the Real Breakout Will Catch People Off Guard
Aljarrah presented his latest comments in a recent post on X. Specifically, the market commentator noted that he believes $XRP’s true turning point will arrive when most investors least expect it.
He argued that once the token breaks above its July 2025 all-time high of $3.6 and pushes into new price territory, the move will likely play out while many market participants focus elsewhere.
Aljarrah pointed out that major market moves rarely happen when the crowd predicts them. Instead, they tend to surprise people who have already lost interest or turned their attention to other assets. To him, the current downtrend may be creating exactly that kind of setup.
Historical Data Confirms This Trend
Interestingly, historical data confirms that $XRP has always had a penchant for rapid price surges, and these surges often happen unexpectedly.
For instance, from late 2016 to early 2017, $XRP underperformed while the rest of the market saw gradual gains. However, after reaching $0.005 in February 2017, $XRP exploded, increasing by 66,100% to $3.31 by January 2018.
A similar occurrence happened between March and April 2021, when $XRP’s price rose 369% from $0.41 to $1.96 within these two months. In another instance, $XRP spiked from the $0.5 price in November 2024 to $3.4 by January 2025, representing a 580% increase within three months.
$XRP’s Setup Compares Silver’s Parabolic Move
Aljarrah had also touted $XRP’s potential to rise sharply when he compared it to silver’s breakout last year. Last December, he called silver’s rally an example of how sharp, one-sided moves can develop after long periods of quiet buildup. Based on this pattern, he said there is a strong chance $XRP could follow a similar path in 2026.
Silver’s sudden parabolic breakout is a textbook example of how asymmetric moves unfold.
There's a high probability that $XRP follows a similar trajectory in 2026, catching late participants unprepared.
$XRP sits in the same psychological blind spot.
— Vandell | Black Swan Capitalist (@vandell33) December 31, 2025
He explained that $XRP currently sits in what he calls a psychological blind spot. Notably, most investors appear distracted or discouraged, which often happens just before an asset regains momentum. If $XRP does mirror silver’s move, late buyers could find themselves scrambling to enter at much higher levels.
$XRP Moves “Fast and Aggressively”
Financial analyst Coach JV previously expressed similar confidence. In December 2024, he predicted that many investors would look back and wish they had bought $XRP at $2, $5, or $7, only to jump in at $100 out of fear of missing out. He argued that short-term thinking often leads to missed opportunities.
As $XRP’s decline continued into late 2025, Coach JV doubled down on his forecast. In December 2025, he said that when $XRP finally moves, it will do so “fast and aggressively.” This aligns with Aljarrah’s argument that the next major breakout could arrive suddenly and catch much of the market unprepared.
