Gold price holds steady above $5,000 as the tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and interest rates enters a new phase

⑴ International gold prices remain steady at historic highs. New York gold futures rose 0.7% to $5,030.70 in early trading on Friday, successfully holding above the key $5,000 mark. This milestone price level reflects the deep interplay between strong demand for safe-haven assets and macroeconomic uncertainty. ⑵ Geopolitical risks have become the core support for current gold prices. The US military deployment in the Middle East and concerns over potential strikes against Iran continue to heighten risk aversion. Although the market has partially priced in this factor, as long as the risk of conflict persists, the safe-haven premium for gold is unlikely to dissipate. ⑶ Analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group pointed out that after gold prices hit a record high in January, they experienced a sharp correction, with speculative trading amplifying short-term volatility. However, the fundamental factors supporting gold’s long-term trend remain solid, including the ongoing presence of geopolitical risks and the strategic shift of funds from traditional assets. ⑷ Interest rate expectations remain the key variable determining the next move for gold prices. The market is focusing on the US Personal Consumption Expenditures data to be released on Friday, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator and will directly impact expectations for the interest rate path. If the data falls short of expectations, it may strengthen expectations of a rate cut and thus boost gold; if the data remains sticky, it could put pressure on the non-yielding asset gold. Above $5,000, gold is seeking a new balance between safe-haven demand and interest rate logic.