USD/CNH Price Forecast: Bearish bias persists below 100-day EMA, PBOC leaves its LPR unchanged

The USD/CNH pair trades with mild gains near 6.8905 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. However, the potential upside for the pair seems limited near a 34-month low amid US tariff turmoil. 

US President Donald Trump said on Saturday he would raise a tariff from 10% to 15% on US imports from all countries, the maximum level allowed under the law. This action came after the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s sweeping global tariffs on Friday. 

On Monday, the US President warned countries against backing away from recently negotiated trade deals with the US, saying that he would hit them with much higher levies under different trade laws. Fears of a renewed trade war could exert some selling pressure on the US Dollar (USD) in the near term. 

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) left its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged on Tuesday. The one-year and five-year LPRs were at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively. This decision was widely expected.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, USD/CNH holds below the 100-day EMA, preserving a broader bearish bias. The 20-day Bollinger midline slides and caps rebounds, keeping the near-term tone heavy. RSI (14) at 31.7 sits near oversold, underscoring subdued momentum.

Price hovers just above the lower Bollinger Band at 6.8680, signaling persistent bearish pressure and a stretched condition. The bands slope lower with moderate breadth, pointing to steady downside volatility rather than a breakout. A base above the band floor could invite mean reversion toward the midline at 6.9155, while any recovery faces resistance at the upper band at 6.9633.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)