Swap markets stabilize, Treasury yield curve flattens

⑴ After Monday's compression, swap spreads have stabilized, with $30.85 billion in new investment-grade bond supply absorbed by the market. The tightening of spreads also triggered the unwinding of short-end spread trades, resulting in a slight widening of spreads for maturities of three years and above. Money market rates have risen, SOFR futures have declined, while US stock index futures found some support after Monday's sharp drop. ⑵ Treasury yields have risen, and the yield curve has flattened. Prices have steadily climbed following Japanese government bonds since the Tokyo open, as Japan's Ministry of Finance is considering extending the maturity of medium-term government bonds from 5-11 years to 5-15.5 years, which has flattened the Japanese government bond curve. Buying interest in US Treasuries increased during the European trading session, led by a decline in eurozone government bond yields, but the upward momentum stalled during the London and New York crossover trading session. ⑶ The market is focused on today's upcoming $69 billion two-year Treasury auction, as well as a total of $183 billion in month-end coupon-bearing Treasury supply this week. European stock markets are mixed, US stock index futures have stabilized, Trump's tariffs continue to bring uncertainty to importers and investors, the impact of artificial intelligence continues to affect market sentiment, and the market's attention has shifted to Nvidia's earnings report. ⑷ In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar has strengthened due to the European Parliament postponing the vote on the EU-US trade agreement and the US State Department withdrawing personnel from Beirut, raising concerns about the situation in Iran. The yen weakened as Sanae Takaichi expressed reservations about raising interest rates, further boosting the dollar. Oil prices have declined but remain near seven-month highs, while gold prices have fallen due to the stronger dollar, triggering profit-taking.