Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Returns To Historical Average Levels

Behind the apparent price stability, several key on-chain signals attract analysts’ attention and suggest a possible turning point in market dynamics. These indicators, based on actual capital flows and holder behavior, provide clear insight into the balance between bitcoin supply and demand. Is an adjustment phase underway before a return of buyers?

Technical signals outline a possible recovery

The latest on-chain data analyzed shows a change in the Bitcoin market configuration after several weeks of pressure and uncertainty.

While the bitcoin price still trades below $65,000, some structural indicators point to a return to levels historically associated with rebalancing zones. The analysis is not based on price alone, but on the structure of capital engaged in the network and holder positions.

According to analyst Chris Beamish from Glassnode, several metrics converge towards a normalization scenario after excesses observed during previous phases. The MVRV ratio, in particular, has approached its historical average, placing the market in a zone that has historically offered a more balanced risk/reward profile. This repositioning comes as the overall network valuation and holding structure evolve simultaneously.

The key elements highlighted are the following :

• The MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) has approached its historical average. Chris Beamish emphasizes that this return to the average level corresponds to a zone where BTC valuation has historically been more sustainable ;
• Realized capitalization dropped from about $1.12 trillion in November 2025 to $1.09 trillion, a contraction of roughly $33 billion, indicating a net capital withdrawal from the network ;
• Bitcoins aged three to six months now represent 25.9% of the circulating supply. Axel Adler Jr. estimates that this configuration reflects a phase qualified as “defensive”, where holders keep their positions despite latent losses.

These data describe a market in a structural adjustment phase. They do not constitute a confirmed bullish signal but reflect a gradual stabilization after a period of excess, creating a more neutral ground for future price evolution.

Volume evolution and market behavior

On-chain signals are not limited to valued capital. Indeed, the analysis of exchange flows reveals a less aggressive trend in selling pressure. Data shows that the cumulative volume delta (CVD) of spot market volumes has improved, rising from about –$177.1 million to –$161.5 million, suggesting a moderate reduction in aggressive selling activity in order books. This CVD improvement indicates that buyers absorb part of the supply without causing price shocks.

At the same time, overall spot trading volume has decreased from about $7.6 billion to $6.0 billion, reflecting more limited market participation. This volume reduction, combined with a flatter CVD, fits within a less volatile, yet cautious market context. Historical phases where lower volumes coexisted with more efficient absorption of supply have sometimes preceded reversals, when demand begins to pick up.