Dimon Warns: Current Market Resembles the Eve of the Financial Crisis

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said on Monday that the current financial market landscape is strikingly similar to the boom years prior to the global financial crisis.

“Unfortunately, we saw this in 2005, 2006, and 2007—it was almost exactly the same,” Dimon said Monday at the company’s annual Investor Day in New York. “A rising tide lifts all boats, everyone is making huge profits, people are leveraging to the maximum, as if the future is limitless.”

“Personally, I think people are a bit too comfortable, believing that today’s high asset prices and high trading volumes are real, and that we won’t face any problems. We are extremely cautious about this,” Dimon added.

Dimon's remarks come at a time of market turbulence, as investors, concerned about the impact of artificial intelligence on the core businesses of various industries, are selling related stocks. In the financial sector, the private credit market has felt the brunt of the impact.

“All our major competitors are back,” Dimon said, noting that he recently underwent surgery for arthritis and still has one hand in a cast. “This is good for the global economy and other areas, but I don’t know how long this situation where everyone is doing well can last. I see some people doing foolish things.”

For years, Dimon has consistently warned about the risks of high asset prices, though his concerns have not always materialized. Last fall, he compared a series of bad loans at his own and other banks to “cockroaches,” sparking heated discussions in the credit market.

“I probably shouldn’t say this, but when you see one cockroach, there are likely more,” Dimon said during the company’s earnings call in October last year. “Everyone should be vigilant about this.”

Last year, Wall Street’s major banks enjoyed one of the best years in history, with bank executives, including Dimon, reaping significant rewards.

M&A activity rebounded, and the Trump administration pushed for deregulation of financial services.

At the end of last year, JPMorgan Chase’s stock price fell after the company raised its 2026 expense forecast by $9 billion; on Monday, the company announced plans to invest $19.8 billion annually in technology. The bank also announced a forecast that this year’s net interest income will rise to $104.5 billion, an increase of $1.5 billion from last month’s expectation.

Regarding how much longer he will continue to lead America’s largest bank, Dimon’s answer remained largely unchanged. On Monday, he said he would remain CEO for “a few more years,” but did not provide further details.

When asked about JPMorgan Chase’s competitive positioning in an environment of rapid AI development, Dimon and his core executives listed reasons why the largest U.S. bank is more likely to be a winner than a victim.

“In my view, we will be winners,” Dimon said, adding that the company does not have to be number one in every financial field it enters. “We have always pursued a strategy of using technology to serve our clients better, and we have done so quite well.”

Editor: Guo Mingyu