Analysts Predict Lower Earnings for Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF): Key Points to Watch

Abercrombie & Fitch Quarterly Earnings Preview

Market analysts anticipate that Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) will report lower earnings compared to the previous year, despite an increase in revenue for the quarter ending January 2026. While consensus forecasts provide valuable insight into the company’s financial outlook, the actual performance versus these predictions will likely have a significant impact on the stock’s short-term movement.

Should Abercrombie & Fitch surpass these financial expectations in its upcoming earnings release, scheduled for March 4, the stock could see upward momentum. Conversely, missing key targets may result in a decline.

The management’s commentary during the earnings call will play a crucial role in shaping investor sentiment and future earnings projections. However, understanding the likelihood of a positive earnings surprise can offer additional perspective.

Zacks Consensus Forecast

The retailer is projected to announce quarterly earnings of $3.56 per share, marking a slight decrease of 0.3% year-over-year.

Revenue is expected to reach $1.67 billion, representing a 5.3% increase from the same period last year.

Trends in Estimate Revisions

Over the past month, the consensus estimate for EPS has been adjusted upward by 0.22%. This change reflects analysts’ updated views based on recent developments.

It’s important to note that individual analyst revisions may not always align with the overall consensus movement.

Insights from Earnings ESP

Changes in earnings estimates ahead of a company’s financial report can reveal underlying business conditions. The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) model is designed to capture these signals.

This model compares the Most Accurate Estimate with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter. The Most Accurate Estimate is typically the latest analyst forecast, which may incorporate more recent information than earlier consensus projections.

A positive or negative Earnings ESP reading indicates the potential for actual earnings to differ from consensus expectations. However, the model is most effective in predicting earnings beats when the ESP is positive.

Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy), or #3 (Hold) have historically delivered positive surprises about 70% of the time, and a strong Zacks Rank enhances the model’s predictive accuracy.

It’s worth noting that a negative ESP does not necessarily signal an earnings miss. Predicting an earnings beat is challenging for stocks with negative ESP readings or a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell) or #5 (Strong Sell).

Abercrombie’s Recent Performance

For Abercrombie (ANF), the Most Accurate Estimate is below the Zacks Consensus Estimate, indicating that analysts have recently become more cautious about the company’s earnings outlook. This results in an Earnings ESP of -1.24%.

Currently, Abercrombie holds a Zacks Rank of #3.

Given this combination, it is difficult to confidently predict that Abercrombie will outperform the consensus EPS estimate.

Does Past Earnings Surprise Matter?

Analysts often look at a company’s history of earnings surprises when forecasting future results. Reviewing Abercrombie’s track record can provide context for upcoming expectations.

In the previous quarter, Abercrombie was expected to earn $2.14 per share but reported $2.36, exceeding forecasts by 10.28%.

Over the last four quarters, Abercrombie has beaten consensus EPS estimates every time.

Key Takeaways

Stock price movements aren’t always directly tied to earnings beats or misses. Some stocks decline despite positive earnings, while others rise even after missing expectations due to other influencing factors.

Nevertheless, focusing on stocks likely to exceed earnings forecasts can improve investment outcomes. Checking a company’s Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank before its quarterly report is a useful strategy.

Abercrombie may not be a strong candidate for an earnings beat this quarter. Investors should also consider other elements before deciding to buy or avoid the stock ahead of its earnings release.