XPO's 392nd Largest Volume Spike Does Not Boost Shares Despite Beating Earnings Expectations

Market Overview

On February 25, 2026, XPO shares ended the session down 2.95%, marking a continuation of their recent downward movement. This decline occurred despite a notable 71.71% increase in trading volume, which reached $340 million, ranking as the 392nd highest for the day. The stock’s latest performance stands in contrast to its previous earnings-driven volatility. For example, in December 2025, XPO surged 13.41% after surpassing EPS estimates by 14.29% and exceeding revenue projections by 2.55%. The recent pullback, however, points to a more cautious investor mood, possibly due to uncertainty ahead of the April 2026 earnings release, for which the company has not yet provided EPS or revenue forecasts.

Factors Influencing Performance

XPO has consistently delivered results above analyst expectations in recent quarters. In the third quarter of 2025, which ended in September, the company reported an adjusted EPS of $1.07—4.9% higher than the anticipated $1.02—and generated $2.11 billion in revenue, a 3% increase year-over-year. This strong showing led to a 15.33% pre-market rally in the stock. The Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) division, a key part of XPO’s business, achieved a record adjusted EBITDA of $308 million, contributing to a total company EBITDA of $342 million, up 3% from the previous year. These achievements underscore XPO’s ability to improve operational efficiency, such as reducing damage rates and enhancing delivery reliability, even in a challenging freight environment.

CEO Mario Harik expressed confidence in the company’s trajectory, describing the current phase as “early innings of delivering improvements” and projecting “above-market yield growth.” XPO aims to further improve its operating ratios by 2026 and increase the share of small and medium-sized businesses in its customer base to 30%. This strategic shift is intended to reduce exposure to market volatility and strengthen the company’s long-term stability, especially in an industry sensitive to economic shifts.

Despite these positive developments, the stock’s recent fluctuations reveal ongoing investor uncertainty. For instance, in December 2024, XPO climbed 8.69% after a 35.75% EPS beat, but in June 2025, the stock dropped 10.20% despite a 5% EPS outperformance. This pattern suggests that while operational improvements are evident, broader market factors—such as freight demand and cost pressures—continue to influence sentiment. The absence of a revenue outlook for the March 2026 quarter, which will be reported on April 30, adds to the ambiguity, leaving investors without clear metrics to gauge future prospects.

The contrast between strong earnings surprises and share price declines highlights the difficulty of aligning short-term results with long-term expectations. For example, the 15.33% jump following Q3 2025 earnings was followed by the recent 2.95% drop, indicating that the market may be pricing in potential challenges. These could include macroeconomic headwinds, such as weaker logistics demand, or obstacles in expanding the small and medium business segment. Without concrete guidance for upcoming quarters, many investors appear to be taking a cautious approach, contributing to the observed price correction.

In conclusion, XPO’s share price is being shaped by a combination of robust operational execution and ongoing uncertainty about the future. While the company’s efficiency gains and strategic initiatives have driven recent successes, unresolved questions about future guidance and broader economic risks continue to impact investor confidence. The next few months will be pivotal in determining whether XPO can maintain its positive momentum or if external pressures will slow its progress.