Coursera's Morgan Stanley Fireside: A Strategic Approach for an Underperforming Stock

Coursera Approaches a Critical Turning Point

Coursera is gearing up for a pivotal moment as its leadership prepares to speak at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 3, 2026. After years of lackluster stock performance, this event stands out as the next major opportunity for the company to reshape its narrative and spark renewed investor interest.

The company’s stock has endured a significant decline, falling 6.6% since the start of the year and hovering near its lowest point in the past 52 weeks. The broader picture is even more sobering: Coursera’s shares have lost over half their value in 2024, a steep drop from their $58 peak in 2021. This is not a brief setback, but a prolonged period of underperformance.

The timing of the Morgan Stanley conference adds to its importance. As a premier event for technology and media companies, it attracts significant attention from analysts and investors. For Coursera (COUR +4.44%), this is a rare chance to address the market directly since its last major update.

That previous update came on February 5 with the release of the Q4 2025 earnings report, which revealed 10% revenue growth. While this was a positive sign, it also left questions about whether such growth is sustainable. The key issue now is whether management can present a convincing new strategy for driving growth or improving margins beyond the recent 9% annual revenue increase.

The Udemy Merger: A Game-Changing Move?

The upcoming merger with Udemy (UDMY +4.48%) looms large over Coursera’s upcoming presentation. Announced in December, this deal marks the company’s most ambitious strategic initiative in years, aiming to create a leading global learning platform by expanding reach and leveraging complementary strengths. For a stock trading at depressed valuations, this merger could be the catalyst that shifts the narrative from modest growth to a transformative platform story.

However, the merger’s success hinges on effective execution, and the challenges of integrating two large organizations are significant. The market has seen similar deals struggle, and the combined company will need to navigate operational, cultural, and customer integration hurdles. Investors will be looking for management to address these risks directly and provide a clear roadmap for achieving cost savings and operational synergies. Vague assurances won’t be enough—concrete milestones and timelines are essential to restore confidence.

The timing of the merger announcement, coming just after the Q4 earnings report that showed 10% revenue growth but a drop in operating cash flow, raises questions about the underlying motivations. Is this a response to slowing growth, or a proactive move to scale up? The fireside chat offers the perfect stage for management to clarify their strategic thinking. If they can convincingly argue that the merger is necessary to accelerate growth and boost margins, it could redefine the investment case. Downplaying the integration risks, however, may only increase skepticism.

Ultimately, the Udemy merger is not a side note—it is the central issue investors want addressed. For Coursera’s stock to recover, management must move beyond discussing recent results and present a compelling, actionable vision for how the merger will create value. The March 3 event is their immediate chance to do so.

Financial Performance: Growth Without Revaluation

There is a clear disconnect between Coursera’s financial results and its share price. The company posted solid numbers in 2025, but the market has not responded with renewed enthusiasm. Annual revenue increased 9% to $757 million, with the Consumer segment growing 12% in the last quarter. Importantly, Coursera turned this growth into real profits, generating $109 million in operating cash flow and $78 million in free cash flow for the year.

This improved cash generation is a positive development, indicating a stronger financial foundation that could support a higher valuation. Yet, management’s outlook for 2026 is more cautious, projecting revenue between $805 and $815 million—a slower growth rate than 2025’s 9%. This suggests the era of easy gains may be over.

This is at the heart of Coursera’s current predicament. The market has already priced in steady, slow growth and positive cash flow. The 6.6% year-to-date decline and the stock’s position near its 52-week low reflect investor skepticism. Even the recent Q4 report, with its 10% revenue growth, failed to spark a rally, highlighting doubts about the sustainability of this pace.

For the upcoming fireside chat, these financial results are both a strength and a challenge. They establish credibility but also set high expectations. Management must now explain why this steady performance deserves a higher valuation. The narrative must shift: 2026 guidance should be seen as a launching pad for the transformative potential of the Udemy merger, not a ceiling. Without this shift, the stock is likely to remain stuck.

Artificial Intelligence: The Next Growth Story?

The Morgan Stanley conference offers Coursera a chance to reposition itself as an AI-driven growth story, moving beyond the narrative of steady but unspectacular expansion. At Morgan Stanley’s own 2025 thematic conference, AI was highlighted as a major driver of investment megatrends, especially in technology. Coursera, with its focus on upskilling in high-demand fields, is well positioned to benefit from this trend. The company’s recent rollout of AI-powered features directly targets the growing need for expertise in generative AI and data science.

The crucial question is whether management will provide tangible evidence of how AI is impacting the bottom line. General statements about strategic alignment with AI trends won’t be enough—investors want to see how these innovations are driving revenue and profitability. The fireside chat is the ideal forum to share specifics: Are AI-enhanced courses leading to higher completion rates or premium pricing? Are enterprise customers paying more for AI-driven solutions? Any quantifiable impact of AI on revenue or margins could be a powerful catalyst for a stock re-rating.

Currently, the market views Coursera as a slow-growing, cash-generative business. The AI narrative offers a way out of this perception. If management can outline a credible plan for AI-driven growth that exceeds the modest 2026 guidance, it could transform the investment outlook, positioning Coursera as a scalable, innovative company riding a major secular trend.

The risk is that management remains vague, offering only generic comments about AI’s importance. In a conference focused on thematic investing, Coursera must demonstrate that it is not just exposed to AI, but actively leveraging it for growth. The March 3 event is a critical test. A compelling AI monetization story could be the spark needed to revive the stock.

Key Takeaways: What Investors Should Watch For

The upcoming fireside chat is a crucial moment for Coursera’s leadership to reset expectations and present a new vision. The current market view reflects a company priced for slow, steady growth. To break out of this pattern, management must introduce credible new catalysts.

• Updated 2026 Revenue Guidance: The current forecast of $805–$815 million suggests limited growth. Investors will be looking for a roadmap to faster expansion, whether through the Udemy merger, AI monetization, or other initiatives. Simply reaffirming the existing guidance without a compelling growth plan will be seen as a missed opportunity.
• Details on Margin Improvement: While Coursera showed better operating leverage in 2025, the market remains skeptical about long-term profitability. Investors want specifics on how the Udemy integration or AI features will drive cost efficiencies and improve margins. Vague promises won’t suffice.
• A Clear AI Monetization Strategy: The most promising narrative shift involves demonstrating how AI is directly contributing to revenue and profitability. Management should provide concrete examples of AI-driven initiatives that are boosting completion rates, enabling premium pricing, or increasing enterprise sales.

The main risk is that management simply reiterates the current story—focusing on past results, restating 2026 guidance, and offering no new growth or margin drivers. If that happens, the stock is likely to remain in its current rut, confirming the market’s view that there is no catalyst for change.

In summary, treat the March 3 fireside chat as a make-or-break event. A successful narrative reset—marked by new guidance, actionable margin plans, or a compelling AI monetization story—could trigger a rally as investors reassess the stock. Failure to deliver fresh catalysts will likely reinforce Coursera’s stagnation. The opportunity for a re-rating is there, but execution will be everything.