The Dalilah Law may trigger a significant surge in trucking rates

The Dalilah Law: Potential Impact on the U.S. Trucking Industry

Senator Jim Banks (R-Ind.) has introduced the Dalilah Law in the Senate, following a call from President Trump during the State of the Union. If enacted, this legislation could cause a sudden and dramatic reduction in trucking capacity, potentially sparking a period of soaring trucking rates as supply tightens overnight. Such a shift could lead to a long-term environment where carriers experience the most favorable market conditions seen in decades.

The bill restricts commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) to U.S. citizens, lawful permanent residents, and a limited group of visa holders (E-2 treaty investors, H-2A agricultural workers, and H-2B non-agricultural workers). This would require states to revoke thousands of CDLs from undocumented drivers and others with temporary or ineligible immigration statuses. Additionally, the law would enforce English-only testing and require all current CDL holders to recertify, with compliance ensured by the threat of losing federal highway funding for states that do not adhere.

Unlike regulatory changes from agencies like the FMCSA, this law would become binding federal statute as soon as it is signed by the President, leaving states with no option but to comply quickly to maintain their transportation funding. The only transition period would be a 180-day window for current drivers to recertify.

Who Would Be Affected?

Foreign-born drivers make up about 18–19% of the U.S. trucking workforce—roughly 630,000 to 720,000 out of a total of 3.5–3.8 million drivers, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and industry sources. While not all would lose their eligibility, the law’s strict requirements—excluding undocumented individuals, most temporary statuses, and mandating English proficiency—closely match the scenarios analyzed in a detailed report prepared for J.B. Hunt by Noël Perry of Transport Futures.

The report estimates that similar enforcement measures, including English language requirements and documentation checks, could disqualify over 600,000 drivers—about 16% of the active workforce. This includes approximately 197,000 due to English proficiency issues, 252,000 from documentation or immigration status problems, and 167,000 from non-domiciled status revocations, with some overlap and additional hiring restrictions.

Immediate Effects on Capacity and Rates

Trucks require qualified drivers, and removing such a large portion of the workforce—potentially over 20% when considering the law’s broad scope and rapid implementation—would drastically reduce available capacity almost instantly. This would create a severe shortage, with fewer trucks available to move the same amount of freight.

Such a shortage would cause spot market rates for truckload capacity to skyrocket, followed by significant increases in contract rates as the industry adjusts. Trucking companies would face a much smaller pool of drivers, likely leading to substantial wage hikes and large sign-on bonuses.

The situation would resemble the capacity crunch seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, but without the influx of new immigrant drivers that previously helped balance the market and contributed to the so-called Great Freight Recession.

Past capacity shortages, such as the 2021 freight boom, saw both spot and contract rates climb by double-digit percentages. A reduction of this magnitude could lead to even steeper increases, with some lanes potentially experiencing rate hikes of 50–100% if the driver removals happen quickly and without gradual adjustment.

Broader Economic Impact

While significantly higher trucking rates would greatly benefit carriers and might slightly raise the cost of goods, trucking expenses typically make up less than 4% of finished product prices. As a result, even a doubling of trucking rates would likely increase consumer prices by less than 1%, keeping the overall effect on inflation limited.

With fewer competitors, fleets would gain considerable bargaining power in the short term, though hiring new drivers would become more difficult and costly. Larger carriers might pursue mergers or acquisitions to secure remaining capacity, but the overall trend would be clear: supply would tighten sharply, and rates would surge.

A Swift and Lasting Change

This legislation is not a gradual policy adjustment or a rule subject to lengthy legal battles. It would be a binding statute, remaining in effect until Congress decides otherwise. The Dalilah Law would redefine who is eligible to hold a CDL nationwide, and the resulting capacity squeeze and rate increases would be felt immediately.