Celsius Q4: Surpassing Estimates, Yet Was It Already Priced In?

Q4 Results: Surpassing Expectations

Celsius Holdings (CELH) reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.26 and revenue totaling $722 million for the fourth quarter. These figures significantly outperformed analysts’ estimates, which were $0.19 per share and $639 million in sales. The market responded swiftly, with shares jumping over 16% in pre-market trading. At first glance, this appears to be a textbook case of exceeding forecasts and raising guidance.

However, the context is more complex. In the previous quarter, Celsius beat earnings per share by $0.14, yet the stock dropped 7.86% the next day—a classic “sell the news” scenario, where high expectations led to disappointment. This time, the consensus was set too low, resulting in a 36.8% EPS beat. Such a substantial outperformance often hints that unofficial expectations were even lower than the published estimates. The strong pre-market rally confirms the surprise was genuine, but also underscores the pent-up pressure from prior setbacks.

Brand Performance: Alani Nu’s Rise and Rockstar’s Decline

The company’s revenue growth was driven by contrasting fortunes within its portfolio. Alani Nu, now integrated into PepsiCo’s distribution network, saw retail sales soar 101% year-over-year, fueling Celsius’s record annual revenue of $2.5 billion. This rapid expansion highlights the effectiveness of the new distribution channel and strong consumer demand.

Meanwhile, Rockstar Energy experienced an 11% year-over-year drop in retail sales, weighing down the overall category. This divergence illustrates the risks inherent in managing multiple brands—success in one can obscure challenges in another.

The flagship Celsius brand (CELH) also faced competitive challenges, with revenue declining about 8% in Q4. This signals mounting pressure in a crowded market, setting up a clear expectation gap for 2026: while Alani Nu’s growth drove the beat, the core Celsius and Rockstar brands are under strain.

Portfolio Trends

The fourth quarter’s results reveal a portfolio split: one brand is thriving, while others are struggling. For sustained stock momentum, investors will need to see growth broaden across all brands, not just rely on Alani Nu’s performance. The current situation is precarious, hinging on a single brand’s success.

Annual Overview: Record Revenue and Market Share Milestone

Celsius achieved record annual revenue of $2.5 billion, marking an 86% increase over FY2024. Alani Nu contributed more than $1 billion to this total, and Rockstar’s integration also played a role. CEO John Fieldly announced that Celsius reached roughly a 20% dollar share of the U.S. energy drink market in Q4 2025.

Fieldly’s statement that the company is “entering 2026 with positive momentum” signals a reset in guidance. After a year of rapid growth and acquisitions, this sets a new baseline for expectations, indicating a shift from integration to sustained execution. The 20% market share milestone provides a concrete benchmark for future performance.

The market’s reaction—an early trading surge of 16%—shows investors are rewarding both the scale and market share achievement. With expectations now recalibrated, future results will need to demonstrate organic growth beyond Alani Nu and stabilization of the Celsius and Rockstar brands to maintain momentum.

Looking Ahead: Key Catalysts and Risks

With the recent beat already reflected in the stock price, attention turns to what will support or challenge the new “positive momentum” narrative. Several near-term catalysts will determine if expectations remain aligned.

• Growth Continuity: The explosive sales of Alani Nu powered the annual results, but the core Celsius brand declined in Q4. Investors will look for continued momentum in Alani Nu and signs that Rockstar’s decline is stabilizing in upcoming quarterly reports. Any setbacks could quickly dampen optimism.
• Management Guidance: The CEO’s “positive momentum” outlook must be backed by solid numbers. The next earnings call will be crucial—if guidance merely matches recent performance, the stock may falter. Investors want to see a clear plan for organic growth and recovery in underperforming brands.
• Insider Activity: Executive actions can signal confidence. Over the past six months, insiders conducted three sales and two purchases. Recent sales by the CFO and Chief Supply Chain Officer may be routine, but persistent selling from key leaders could indicate limited upside. Conversely, increased buying would reinforce a bullish outlook.

In summary, the stock’s recent rally reflects a shift in expectations. To sustain this optimism, Celsius must deliver accelerating growth from its leading brand, a credible strategy for stabilizing the rest of its portfolio, and guidance that supports the new narrative. Falling short on any of these fronts could create a new gap between expectations and reality.