BNY Mellon: The safe-haven logic of US Treasuries has failed.
John Velis from BNY Mellon stated in a report that against the backdrop of the current Middle East conflict, U.S. Treasury bonds have not performed as expected amid geopolitical turmoil. He pointed out: "Usually after such geopolitical shocks, market volatility rises, and risk assets such as stocks and corporate bonds weaken." In addition, the U.S. dollar usually appreciates, and U.S. Treasury bonds rise, reflecting safe-haven behavior. For certain assets, such as the U.S. dollar, price movements did follow this usual pattern, but what is truly puzzling is the performance of U.S. Treasury bonds. "We originally expected bonds to rise and yields to fall, but on the first trading day after the airstrike, the reality was quite the opposite."
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