Fitch: Supply disruptions in the Gulf region will also impact the metals market

The impact on producers may vary, as rising metal prices could be offset by increases in electricity and logistics costs. The Middle East accounts for about 8%-9% of global aluminum production. Fitch believes that Chinese producers, including Aluminum Corporation of China and China Hongqiao Group, are better positioned to benefit from tightening global supply, as their electricity supply and prices are more stable. In contrast, rising electricity prices in Japan and South Korea may put pressure on profit margins. The copper market faces complex pressures: supply chain disruptions support short-term copper prices, but rising transportation and energy costs squeeze profit margins. High electricity prices may also weaken global economic growth, reducing copper demand and depressing prices. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks are boosting gold demand, benefiting gold miners. For steel producers, the impact is mostly negative, as logistics bottlenecks in ore imports and rising energy prices drive up unit costs, while exports to the Middle East may slow by 2025.