Oracle's AI Push: A Potential Catalyst for Q3 Earnings Growth?

Oracle Corporation ORCL is set to report third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on March 10, 2026, covering the period from December 2025 through February 2026. Non-GAAP earnings per share are expected to grow 12-14% and be between $1.64 and $1.68 in cc. Non-GAAP earnings per share are expected to grow 16-18% and be between $1.70 and $1.74 in dollar terms.

The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $1.70 per share, unchanged over the past 30 days. The figure indicates 15.65% growth from the year-ago period. 

A series of AI-driven announcements and infrastructure milestones that unfolded during the quarter were among the key factors expected to shape whether Oracle could meet or exceed those targets.

OCI Capacity and RPO Momentum

The foundation for potential third-quarter upside was established during fiscal second quarter, when Oracle’s Remaining Performance Obligations surged 438% year over year to $523 billion, driven by new commitments from Meta, NVIDIA and others.

Management guided for total cloud revenue growth of 40% to 44% in dollar terms for the fiscal third quarter, noting that near-term capacity availability would enable faster backlog conversion. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cloud revenues is pegged at $8.84 billion.

Oracle Cloud Infrastructure’s GPU-related revenues grew 177% in the fiscal second quarter, and continued data center deployments were expected to sustain that trajectory through the fiscal third quarter as newly added capacity came online.

AI Announcements During Q3 Fiscal 2026

Several notable AI developments took place between December 2025 and February 2026. In December 2025, Oracle and the U.S. Department of Energy announced a collaboration to advance AI and advanced computing initiatives, including the Genesis Mission, signaling Oracle Cloud Infrastructure’s expanding role in government and scientific workloads. That same month, Oracle confirmed the upcoming on-premises release of Oracle AI Database 26ai for Linux x86-64 platforms, which became available in January 2026. The rollout extended the AI-native database beyond cloud and engineered systems environments, potentially broadening Oracle’s addressable customer base and supporting incremental software revenues.

In January 2026, Oracle published details of active AI data center construction projects in Texas, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Michigan, developed in partnership with OpenAI as part of the Stargate initiative. Those projects were expected to drive further OCI capacity additions and contribute to revenue recognition during the fiscal third quarter.

In February 2026, Oracle extended its multi-year title partnership with Oracle Red Bull Racing, with Oracle Cloud Infrastructure and Oracle AI powering an AI-driven race-strategy agent alongside the team’s next-generation hybrid power unit development. While the direct revenue impact may be limited, the partnership demonstrated Oracle AI’s applicability in real-time, performance-critical environments.

Factors to Watch

Not all developments during the period were favorable. A securities fraud class action was filed against Oracle in February 2026, and reports emerged of stalled negotiations around a broader Stargate expansion, though the core 4.5-gigawatt OpenAI agreement remained intact. Capital expenditure expectations for fiscal 2026 were also revised upward by roughly $15 billion following the fiscal second quarter, keeping investor focus on whether OCI revenue growth could offset Oracle’s rising infrastructure costs.

ORCL’s Zacks Rank & Stocks to Consider

Currently, Oracle has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Some better-ranked stocks in the broader Zacks Computer & Technology sector are Advanced Energy Industries AEIS, MongoDB MDB and Digital Turbine APPS. AEIS and MDB sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), while APPS carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. Long-term earnings growth rates for Advanced Energy Industries, MongoDB and Digital Turbine are currently pegged at 19.3%, 24.2% and 41.5%, respectively. Shares of Advanced Energy Industries and MongoDB have appreciated 131% and 4.9%, respectively, whereas shares of Digital Turbine have lost 3.4% over the past six months.