Airline Stocks Headed For A 'World Of Hurt' On Oil Spike: Peter Brandt

Oil prices are surging above $100, putting fresh pressure on airline stocks like American Airlines Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL), United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL) and Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:DAL). One market technician warns that the pain is just starting.

• AAL stock is sinking.

Oil Spike Hits Airlines

West Texas Intermediate crude has jumped into the $100-per-barrel range after supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and escalating conflict in the Middle East, marking a roughly 60% move over the past month. 

The shock is critical for airlines because jet fuel is one of their highest variable costs, and most carriers have limited ability to immediately pass those costs through to higher fares during a softening demand backdrop.

Veteran futures trader Peter Brandt captured the mounting anxiety in a social media post. 

"If Crude Oil does what the chart indicates might be possible, then airlines are headed for a world of hurt. I would not want to be long airline stocks this coming week," Brandt warned on X. 

This adds a technical layer to the fundamentally bearish setup already facing the sector.​

AAL, UAL And DAL under pressure

Shares of American Airlines have fallen sharply in recent sessions, dropping from the low‑$13 area in late February to near $10.70, a move that wipes out weeks of gains and reflects investors' growing concern about balance‑sheet strain if fuel stays elevated. 

AAL has also faced pressure from Wall Street on its ratings. Last week, Rothschild & Co analyst James Goodall downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral and cut the price target from $17 to $12.50, flagging limited financial flexibility in a higher‑cost environment.​

Both Delta Air Lines and United Airlines have already seen double‑digit year‑to‑date declines as investors question 2026 earnings guidance that was built on far lower fuel assumptions. 

If oil holds near or above $100, profit forecasts for DAL and UAL may need to come down meaningfully, even though Delta's Monroe Energy refinery provides a partial hedge that United lacks.

Other airlines, including Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK), Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV) and JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASDAQ:JBLU) will also face sharply higher fuel costs.

Investors can monitor the entire airline sector through the U.S. Global Jets ETF (NYSE:JETS).

What Comes Next?

There is still a debate over how long the oil spike will last, but in the near term traders may treat any strength in major U.S. airline stocks as an opportunity to de‑risk rather than a green light to buy.

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