Trump declares the war will end, oil prices plunge 11%, global stock markets celebrate; can two missiles change the situation?

⑴ On Tuesday, global markets experienced significant volatility. Former U.S. President Trump claimed that the Middle East war could "end very soon," which spurred a 1.5% surge in European stock markets. The Stoxx 600 Index ended a three-day losing streak, and the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index soared by 3.2%. ⑵ The crude oil market responded with a sharp decline, as Brent crude oil futures plunged by as much as 11% to below $88, before narrowing the loss to 5.6%. The market was extremely sensitive to every statement, being entirely driven by headline news. ⑶ However, Iran responded firmly. The Revolutionary Guard declared it would continue to block oil exports until the U.S. and Israel cease their attacks. The new Supreme Leader Khamenei received strong support from hardliners, and there remains significant uncertainty over a swift resolution to the conflict. ⑷ The bond market underwent sharp adjustments. The money market reduced its bets on ECB rate hikes this year, German bond yields fell across the board, and the two-year UK gilt yield plummeted from Monday's high of 4.23% to 3.92%. Market pricing indicates that investors expect the disruption to last for weeks rather than months.