UK inflation may rise further due to a sharp increase in heating oil prices

Golden Ten Data reported on March 17 that Thomas Pugh, an analyst at UK RSM, pointed out in a report that the sharp rise in heating oil prices could push up the UK's inflation rate by 0.1 percentage points. Since the outbreak of the Iran war, the price of heating oil has more than doubled. This is because heating oil is made from kerosene. More than 40% of kerosene products imported by Europe come mainly from the Middle East, and their reserve scale is relatively small. Due to the government's energy price cap coming into effect in April, the UK's inflation rate may still decline in April, but it may drop to 2.5% instead of the previously forecasted 2.0%. Ultimately, we currently believe that the inflation rate may remain around 3.5% by the end of this year, but if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for a long time, the inflation rate may rise sharply.