Macy's stated in its latest earnings outlook that it will face a more significant tariff impact in the first half of 2026 compared to the second half, with the first quarter being the most affected.

This prediction is based on the macro background that the U.S. tariff policy towards China may continue or intensify. Currently, inflationary pressures in the U.S. persist, and both parties are taking a tougher stance on trade policy, with uncertainties in the trade environment after the new government takes office in 2025. If Section 301 tariffs are extended or expanded, rising import costs will directly squeeze the profit margins of retail companies. As a traditional American department store giant, Macy's sources about 30% of its merchandise from China, covering core categories such as apparel, home goods, and accessories. If tariff costs cannot be fully passed on to consumers, the company's gross margin may come under pressure. Historical data shows that during the 2018-2019 trade friction period, Macy's gross margin declined by about 1.5 percentage points. Wall Street analysts point out that Macy's is mitigating potential impacts through diversified sourcing and increasing the proportion of private label products, but supply chain adjustments take time. If tariff pressures are concentrated and released at the beginning of 2026, it may affect the achievement of its earnings guidance for that season. Recently, several retail companies have warned of the potential drag of tariffs on their performance for fiscal years 2025-2026. As of press time, Macy's stock price fell slightly by 0.3% after hours. The market is watching for the detailed financial simulations and response strategies it will disclose next quarter.