The EU reiterates its decision not to resume imports of Russian oil; Trump faces financial, inflation, and polling pressures; global central banks' hawkish stance drives US Treasury yields higher — 0323 Macro Brief

On March 18, the European Union bypassed Hungary's opposition and agreed to provide Ukraine with a €90 billion loan. Regarding the US lifting sanctions on Russian oil, the European Union made it clear on March 16 that it would not change its energy policy due to short-term market fluctuations, insisting on gradually eliminating reliance on Russian energy and accelerating the promotion of renewable energy.

As the Iran conflict drags on, the Trump administration is facing triple pressures of finances, inflation, and polling. Financially, military operations against Iran have already cost about $11 billion. On the inflation front, the risk premium at the Strait of Hormuz continues to support oil prices. In terms of polling, Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 39%.

Driven by hawkish statements from the FOMC and global central banks, US Treasury yields have risen sharply across the board, with short-term yields rising more than long-term yields, reflecting increased inflation expectations and diminished expectations for rate cuts. Although the United States enjoys the "petrodollar" advantage, the Bank of England maintained its interest rate, and expectations for a rate hike by the European Central Bank have risen, pushing the euro and pound stronger and causing the US dollar index to decline.