Bitget UEX Daily | US-Iran Talks Remain Divided but Ceasefire Expectations Boost US Stocks; Google Releases Cache Compression Technology Impacting Storage Sector (March 26, 2026)

I. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

No Major Monetary Policy Adjustments, Focus Shifts to Geopolitical Risks

• White House Press Secretary Levitt revealed that the US and Iran have conducted “productive contacts” over the past three days. Trump has instructed the Department of Defense to suspend strikes on Iran’s power and energy infrastructure, but stressed that stronger measures will be taken if Iran refuses to accept reality.
• The core of the negotiations remains uranium control, with an expected timeline of four to six weeks and no formal congressional authorization required; meanwhile, Israel continues strikes on Iranian military targets, with no signs of de-escalation. Market Impact: Although ceasefire expectations have temporarily eased risk premiums, military actions remain unsubstantially relaxed. Combined with additional US troop deployments to the Middle East, oil prices and inflation uncertainty may still constrain the Federal Reserve’s future policy space.

International Commodities

Hormuz Strait Transportation Blocked, Saudi Arabia Accelerates Red Sea Export Rerouting

• Since the strait essentially halted shipments in late February, Saudi Arabia plans to double crude oil export volume from the Yanbu port within two weeks. The five-day average loading volume this week has already reached 4.4 million barrels per day, approaching the 5-million-barrel target.
• COSCO Shipping has resumed bookings for Gulf countries, but vessels will not pass through the Hormuz Strait for the time being. Market Impact: Rapid supply-chain restructuring has temporarily eased global crude oil shortage concerns, yet it underscores the fragility of energy logistics under geopolitical conflicts. Oil price movements remain highly dependent on negotiation progress.

Macroeconomic Policy

Morgan Stanley Chief Investment Officer Optimistically Forecasts S&P Earnings Growth

• Mike Wilson expects S&P 500 constituent earnings to grow 20% over the next 12 months—a pace historically seen only when the economy emerges from recession.
• First-quarter earnings expectations have been revised upward to 11.9%, though JPMorgan warns that if oil prices remain at $110 per barrel, earnings could face a 5-percentage-point downward revision. Market Impact: Upward revisions to earnings forecasts support equity valuation resilience. The upcoming earnings season will serve as a critical validation window, with geopolitics and oil prices remaining the primary variables.

II. Market Review

Commodities & FX Performance

• Spot Gold: +0.72%, latest at $4,539/oz.
• Spot Silver: +0.66%, latest at $71.73/oz.
• WTI Crude: +1.13%, latest at $91.37/barrel.
• Brent Crude: +1.13%, latest at $103/barrel.
• US Dollar Index: +0.01%, latest at 99.637; under ceasefire signals and improved risk appetite, the dollar lacks a clear unilateral direction, but inflation expectations and Fed policy paths continue to provide some support.

Core Drivers: Markets are quickly pricing in the “phased easing of geopolitical risks” narrative, causing energy prices to pull back sharply while alleviating stagflation fears triggered by earlier high oil prices. After briefly losing some safe-haven support, precious metals staged a strong tail-end rebound. Institutions generally believe the long-term bull case for gold (central bank purchases, prolonged geopolitical uncertainty, etc.) remains intact and recommend buying on dips. Crude faces near-term adjustment pressure, but if US-Iran talks fail to reach a substantive agreement, the energy thesis will recur. Investors should closely monitor the latest US-Iran developments, the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting, and subsequent EIA crude inventory data for price guidance.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: +0.68% in 24H, at $71,176; two-day rebound driven by geopolitical easing and short-covering.
• ETH: +0.28% in 24H, at $2,165; relatively steady performance supported by broader risk-on sentiment.
• Total Crypto Market Cap: +0.5% in 24H, approximately $2.52 trillion; BTC-led recovery gradually restoring market sentiment.
• Liquidation Overview: $1.57 billion total liquidated in 24H ($0.54 billion long, $1.03 billion short).
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Heatmap: Current price ~$71,195; long liquidation zones below have visibly thinned, while a heavy cluster of high-leverage short liquidations remains concentrated between $71,800–73,000. Short-term price action is more likely to trigger upward squeezes. Overall structure shows stronger liquidity above than below, suggesting any continued consolidation will first test the upper liquidation-dense zone.

• Spot ETF Net Flows: BTC spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $78.5 million yesterday; ETH spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $23.8 million yesterday.
• BTC Spot Flows: Inflows $2.029 billion, outflows $2.004 billion, net inflow $25 million.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: +0.66%, at 46,429.49 points; two consecutive days of gains.
• S&P 500: +0.54%, at 6,591.9 points; balanced contributions from defensive and growth sectors.
• Nasdaq: +0.77%, at 21,929.83 points; driven primarily by technology and aerospace themes.

Tech Giants Performance

• Apple (AAPL): +0.39%, at $252.62; consumer electronics demand remains solid, benefiting from broader risk-on sentiment.
• Amazon (AMZN): +2.16%, at $211.71; stable e-commerce growth and AWS cloud synergy.
• NVIDIA (NVDA): +1.99%, at $178.68; sustained AI computing demand; market confidence in the AI theme remains solid.
• Microsoft (MSFT): -0.46%, at $371.04; short-term profit-taking pressure.
• Google (GOOG): +0.17%, at $290.93; new memory-optimization algorithm release triggered ripple effects across the storage chain.
• Meta (META): +0.33%, at $594.89; social platforms and advertising business performing steadily.
• Tesla (TSLA): +0.76%, at $385.95; EV sector following broader market risk-on recovery.

Core Reason: Ceasefire expectations significantly boosted overall market risk appetite, lifting growth stocks broadly. Google’s memory-optimization technology exerted short-term pressure on storage names, yet the long-term AI thesis continues to attract capital, resulting in some sector rotation and differentiation.

Sector Rotation Highlights

Commercial Aerospace Sector +10%+

• Representative stocks: Rocket Lab (RKLB) +10%+, Planet Labs (PL) +10%+.
• Drivers: Rumors of SpaceX’s impending IPO filing heating up, combined with Intuitive Machines securing a $180 million NASA commercial lunar payload order; acceleration of commercial space commercialization drawing fresh capital.

CPU Sector +7%+

• Representative stocks: Intel (INTC) +7%+, AMD +7%+, Arm Holdings (ARM) +16.38%.
• Drivers: AI demand causing CPU supply tightness; Intel and AMD planning across-the-board price hikes from March–April; Arm’s self-developed AGI CPU outlook further stimulating expectations.

Storage Sector Notable Decline

• Representative stocks: Micron (MU), Western Digital (WDC), SanDisk (SNDK), etc., down 3%–5.7%.
• Drivers: Google’s TurboQuant and similar algorithms dramatically reducing LLM and vector search memory usage; market fears of long-term weakening in storage chip demand.

Gold Mining Sector +3%+

• Representative stocks: Eagle Mine (AEM) +4.68%, Kinross Gold (KGC) +3%+.
• Drivers: Rebound in precious metals prices supported by lingering geopolitical safe-haven flows.

III. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Google (GOOG) – TurboQuant and Similar Algorithms Reduce AI Memory Usage

Event Overview: Google released a series of new algorithms, including TurboQuant and PolarQuant, designed to significantly compress memory requirements for large language models (LLMs) and vector search engines. It also launched the Lyria 3 Pro music generation model, capable of producing complete 3-minute tracks with embedded SynthID watermarking. While the technology improves AI operational efficiency, it has sparked market concerns over long-term storage chip demand, causing collective pressure on the storage supply chain.

Market Interpretation: Institutions generally believe short-term memory optimization may weaken demand for DRAM, HBM, and HDD products, delivering a direct hit to suppliers such as Micron and Western Digital. However, over the medium-to-long term, improved AI efficiency is expected to expand overall compute deployment scale; hyperscaler spending will remain high, albeit with structural shifts in technology pathways. Some analysts view this as an early signal of AI transitioning from “training-oriented” to “inference-optimized.”

Investment Insight: Storage valuations face short-term adjustment pressure. Investors should differentiate between temporary technical shocks and long-term AI demand trends, and closely monitor Google’s subsequent algorithm rollout as well as hyperscalers’ actual memory procurement plans.

2. Micron (MU) / Western Digital (WDC) – Google Memory Optimization Triggers Sector Adjustment

Event Overview: Affected by Google’s TurboQuant compression algorithms, Micron fell ~3%, Western Digital ~4.7%, and SanDisk and other storage names declined in tandem. The market worries that sharply reduced AI model memory dependence will erode the strong demand tailwind previously driven by AI data-center expansion.

Market Interpretation: Analysts note that although AI memory remains in shortage (high-bandwidth memory tightness expected to persist through 2026–2028), Google-led in-house optimization could accelerate a “memory-efficiency revolution” and reshape the supply chain. Institutions emphasize that near-term bearishness stems mainly from sentiment spillover rather than genuine demand disappearance.

Investment Insight: Adopt a cautious stance toward storage volatility in the short term. Watch for rebound opportunities once technology impact is verified, while diversifying into other segments of the full AI supply chain.

3. Rocket Lab (RKLB) / Planet Labs (PL) / Intuitive Machines (LUNR) – Commercial Aerospace Sector Explodes

Event Overview: Rumors of SpaceX’s imminent IPO filing triggered gains of over 10% for Rocket Lab and Planet Labs; Intuitive Machines surged 14.68% after winning a $180 million NASA commercial lunar payload contract. Rocket Lab boasts a record backlog (including an $816 million Space Development Agency contract), markedly elevating sector heat.

Market Interpretation: Institutions expect SpaceX’s IPO to drive valuation re-rating across the entire commercial space ecosystem. Rocket Lab is positioned as a strong contender in small-to-medium launch vehicles, Planet Labs leverages its Earth-observation satellite network, and Intuitive Machines relies on lunar infrastructure—all poised to benefit. Analysts have raised growth forecasts, highlighting dual defense and commercial engines.

Investment Insight: Commercial aerospace momentum is likely to continue. Focus on companies with genuine orders and technological moats, but remain alert to volatility once rumors materialize.

4. Intel (INTC) / AMD – CPU Supply Tightness Drives Price Hikes and Stock Gains

Event Overview: Persistent AI demand has diverted capacity, intensifying CPU shortages for Intel and AMD. PC and server makers are facing supply constraints; both companies plan across-the-board price increases starting March–April. Intel and AMD shares rose over 7% on Wednesday, while Arm surged 16.38% the prior day on its self-developed AGI CPU outlook.

Market Interpretation: Multiple institutions point out that CPU shortages,叠加 prior memory crises, have already pushed PC prices up 10–15%. The AI-prioritization strategy is reshaping the semiconductor supply chain. Intel and AMD are gaining pricing power but also face capacity-expansion pressure and competition from Arm architecture.

Investment Insight: Short-term CPU sector strength has been validated. Monitor actual gross-margin improvement from price pass-through while tracking how AI chip capacity expansion will affect long-term traditional CPU supply.

5. Circle (CRCL) – Stock Hits Largest Single-Day Decline Since IPO

Event Overview: Circle Internet Group (CRCL) shares plunged 20.11%, the largest single-day drop since listing, hitting an intraday low near $101 before closing at $101.17. On March 25 the stock rebounded 2.66% to close at $103.86. The core trigger was an unexpectedly tight US Clarity Act legislative draft; market reports indicate the latest congressional compromise version may explicitly ban stablecoin platforms from paying any form of yield, interest, or rewards to holders (yield ban). This directly undermines Circle’s core profit model—USDC reserves are primarily invested in short-term Treasuries, with interest income as the main revenue source. If enacted, the ban would sharply reduce USDC attractiveness, transaction volumes, and reserve scale. Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett first disclosed the draft details, prompting rapid market repricing and heavy fund outflows. Secondary factors include valuation and profit-taking pressure after a nearly 10× post-IPO surge in 2025, rising Fed rate-cut expectations compressing future interest income, and heightened uncertainty from competitors such as Tether and broader regulatory volatility.

Market Interpretation: Institutions view the plunge primarily as sentiment-driven overselling. Near-term volatility may persist, but long-term fundamentals remain intact: USDC on-chain circulation and usage continue to grow (already significantly ahead of competitors in 2026). Should the final bill prove milder than the draft (market commentary already notes “less draconian than feared”), the stock is likely to recover quickly.

Investment Insight: Maintain caution in the short term and monitor upcoming congressional hearings and final bill text. Over the longer horizon, consider accumulating on dips for Circle’s growth potential in payments, tokenization, and cross-border settlement.

IV. Cryptocurrency Project Updates

1. Asset manager Franklin Templeton has partnered with Ondo Finance to launch tokenized ETF versions tradable 24/7 directly in crypto wallets, bypassing traditional brokerage accounts and limited trading hours.
2. As the US Securities and Exchange Commission prepares an innovation exemption program for tokenized assets, the House Financial Services Committee held a hearing titled “Tokenization and the Future of Securities: Modernizing Capital Markets” on March 25. SEC Chair Paul Atkins stated the agency will soon solicit public comments on a series of rule-making issues, including a proposed innovation exemption that could serve as a regulatory sandbox for on-chain assets.
3. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas indicated that Morgan Stanley’s spot Bitcoin ETF could launch at any time. The New York Stock Exchange has formally announced the fund’s listing arrangements, typically signaling an imminent debut. Morgan Stanley filed its initial application in January and submitted a revised S-1 registration statement last week, confirming the ETF will list on NYSE Arca under ticker MSBT.
4. According to Onchain Lens monitoring, after a month of dormancy, a whale withdrew 11,999 ETH (valued at $26 million) from Coinbase and immediately staked the tokens.
5. Following a compromise on the stablecoin yield clause in the US Clarity Act, the crypto industry reacted with mixed views. Insiders report Coinbase is dissatisfied with the latest compromise but has not yet voiced public opposition. The proposal was presented to the crypto sector on Monday and to banks on Tuesday; some stakeholders were “surprised,” while Coinbase and others believe it could impose greater-than-expected obstacles on stablecoin-related products and services.

V. Today’s Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Key Event Preview

March 26 (Thursday)

1. US weekly initial jobless claims (20:30) – high-frequency labor market indicator.
2. Speeches by multiple Fed officials (Jefferson, Barr, etc.) – verifying recent policy path and inflation response.
3. G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (March 26–27) – watch for statements on the Middle East, Hormuz Strait, and energy supply.

March 27 (Friday)

1. Final March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – focus on geopolitical and oil-price impact on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

In addition, continue monitoring US-Iran negotiation developments: any substantive progress or reversals could significantly affect oil prices and global risk assets.

Institutional Views

Morgan Stanley Chief Investment Officer Mike Wilson maintains his optimistic forecast of 20% earnings growth for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months, noting that the current upward revision trend aligns closely with historical post-recession recovery phases. Although US-Iran talks remain divided and military actions have not contracted, the “productive contacts” ceasefire signal has driven two consecutive days of US stock gains, while falling oil prices have further eased inflation pressure. First-quarter earnings expectations have been lifted to 11.9%, making the earnings season opening in three weeks a pivotal validation point. In crypto markets, BTC holding steady above $71,000 has lifted total market cap, with short liquidations dominating and signaling leverage sentiment repair; however, continued net outflows from BTC/ETH spot ETFs remind investors to watch institutional fund flows. Overall, institutions believe the phased easing of geopolitical risks combined with stronger earnings expectations will continue to support risk assets, but if negotiations falter and oil prices rebound toward $110, both earnings and valuations could face downward revisions. Investors are advised to closely track US employment data, latest Middle East developments, and actual earnings results, capitalizing on structural opportunities in AI, aerospace, CPUs, and other themes amid volatility.

Disclaimer: The above content has been compiled by AI search and has been manually verified for publication only. It does not constitute any investment advice.