Outlook: Do You Have a Gut Feeling Something’s Up?

Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed, Global Oil Supply Severely Impacted

For nearly a month, the Strait of Hormuz has stayed shut, with no immediate prospects for reopening. This ongoing closure has removed approximately 15 million barrels of oil per day from the global market, resulting in a deficit of about 400 million barrels worldwide. To put this in perspective, this shortfall matches the combined strategic petroleum reserves released by all IEA member nations, which are projected to take another three to four months before fully reaching consumers.

Although there are reports of indirect talks between Iran and the United States, both governments continue to publicly maintain hardline positions and issue warnings of potential escalation. The United States is said to have put forward a 15-point proposal aimed at resolving the conflict, but significant differences remain.