Bitcoin’s Lowest Point: Comparing Flow Metrics with Goldman’s Prediction

Bitcoin’s Current Stand: Is This the Bottom or a Temporary Pause?

Bitcoin is currently trading in a narrow range between $69,000 and $71,000, which marks a significant 46% drop from its record high of nearly $126,000 reached in October 2025. This price behavior has sparked debate among investors: are we witnessing the formation of a new market floor, or is this simply a brief respite before further declines? Recently, Goldman Sachs analysts suggested that the crypto market may have already reached its lowest point. Their assessment is based on three main factors: stabilization in technical indicators, improved liquidity conditions, and a notable decrease in forced selling.

Goldman Sachs’ Top Crypto-Related Stock Picks

Among equities tied to the crypto sector, Goldman Sachs favors Robinhood, Figure Technologies, and Coinbase. The bank has recently increased its price target for Figure Technologies from $39 to $42, indicating a potential upside of about 35% from current prices. This selective optimism in crypto-related stocks, despite subdued cryptocurrency prices, suggests that Goldman believes the worst of the sector’s downturn may be behind us. The company’s latest 13F filings for 2026 reveal approximately $2.36 billion invested in bitcoin and ethereum ETFs, reflecting its evolving stance on digital assets.

Challenges to the Bottoming Narrative

Despite these positive signals, several obstacles remain. The broader economic environment is still challenging, with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at a restrictive 3.50–3.75%. Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 has climbed to 0.74, indicating that macroeconomic factors continue to influence its price. Goldman Sachs also warns that trading activity could decline further, potentially leading to a 2% drop in revenue and a 4% decrease in profits for 2026, before a typical three-month recovery period. As a result, the outlook for a market bottom is tentative, with stabilization still fragile and a clear reversal yet to be confirmed.

Liquidity, Trading Volumes, and Whale Activity: A Reality Check

The argument for a market bottom is being put to the test by on-chain flow data. Although Goldman Sachs points to “improving liquidity,” the numbers reveal a market still recovering from exhaustion. In March, Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.53 billion in new investments after four consecutive months of $4.5 billion in outflows. However, this influx is largely driven by retail investors, who now hold 62% of ETF assets. Such a concentration among retail participants can make the market more susceptible to volatility and sudden shifts in sentiment.

Another notable trend is the sharp 87% drop in long-term holder selling, which could indicate that the phase of capitulation has ended. Still, analysts caution that large internal transfers—such as the movement of 800,000 BTC within Coinbase wallets—can distort these figures, potentially masking underlying selling pressure. A more reliable bullish indicator may be the decline in exchange reserves, which have fallen to 2.7 million BTC, the lowest level in seven years.

Liquidity remains the most pressing concern. Goldman Sachs notes that trading volumes could shrink further, possibly reducing 2026 revenue by 2% and profits by 4%, with a typical trough lasting around three months. The current volume-to-market-cap ratio stands at a critical 2.67%, well below the 3-5% range seen in healthier markets. This thin trading environment means even modest trades can trigger significant price swings, undermining the stability needed for a confirmed market bottom.

What Could Drive the Next Move? Catalysts and Risks

A sustained recovery in trading volumes is essential for a meaningful upward move. Goldman Sachs projects that it may take about three months for volumes to rebound after hitting a low. With the volume-to-market-cap ratio at just 2.67%, the market remains highly sensitive to even small inflows or outflows. A genuine resurgence in trading activity would signal that selling pressure has subsided and that the market is shifting from fear to renewed engagement.

One significant risk to the bottoming thesis is the recent drop in miner activity. The miner hash rate has fallen by 22%, which Goldman interprets as a sign of reduced selling. However, much of this decline appears to be due to miners redirecting resources toward AI infrastructure rather than exiting the crypto space entirely. If this is the case, the expected supply-side support may be weaker than anticipated, challenging the notion that forced selling has truly diminished.

Looking ahead, the market faces considerable uncertainty. Prediction markets currently assign a 97% chance that Bitcoin will remain above $67,800, a level close to its present price. However, forecasts for 2026 vary widely, ranging from $75,000 to $225,000. This wide range underscores the market’s fragile state. While a bottom may be forming, the path forward is likely to be turbulent, with the next major move hinging on whether trading volumes recover or if the shift toward AI among miners becomes a lasting trend.